Corn and soy production forecasts for the United States are out: our first end-of-season yield estimates are 159.4 bu/ac for corn and 47.6 bu/ac for soybeans, with total production estimates at 12.4B bushels for corn and 4.2B bushels for soy. This outlook, released a day before the USDA’s July WASDE report, was generated by Indigo Atlas’ machine learning algorithms using satellite, historical crop performance, and weather data. Below, we dig into the circumstances informing these forecasts, dissect the larger story of production in the U.S., and take a look at trends over the past two decades to understand what to expect in the coming months.
First, yield forecasts: For the first two months of the growing season, wet weather and flooding delayed, and even outright prevented, planting; hundreds of fields were underwater, planters were left dormant. Mother Nature killed time, a resource precious to farmers.