Posted 6/11/2019 20:39 (#7553988) Subject: Today’s WASDE was a gift from God!
The USDA bulled up the Corn numbers much more than Analyst expected. This caused a 20 cent reversal in the Market. I was Long Corn and sold. But the big gift in my opinion was that the USDA chose not to adjust the Soybean numbers. I think the Soybean Crop is a disaster and this report may offer a good buying opportunity. The Soybean Crop in the Delta where I live is going to be a Yield Disaster and many acres are going unplanted. I don’t think Soybeans in the Midwest will fare much better. I think Acres and Yield per Acre are coming down sharply. Demand at these prices could surprise to the upside. The carry out estimate is currently over 1 Billion Bushels. I think it could fall to 400 Million Bushels. Soybeans could be trading in the $9.50 to $10.50 range if this scenario plays out. I am looking to sell the Nov 8.50 puts that expire August 23.