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current thoughts
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gunrange
Posted 5/23/2019 07:23 (#7514659)
Subject: current thoughts


FOWLER
Yesterday for the first time all spring there was a line at the elevator at Meyer IL, my son was talking to one farmer he said he was trying to get his corn out of the bottoms. River levels went up to 28 feet and some change and back down, now they are on the rise again, last I heard 25 feet before the rain last night. This is really looking like 1993 for us in west central IL, it rain that year thru July with the last levy breaking in mid July. The big difference was we got planted that year. If you look up the national yield was 100.9 in 1993, I do not believe it will be that low, just saying, with the weather forecast we have there could be a lot of fire works to come, not a market I would want to be caught short in.
I serve on a board and at our meeting Monday night, a couple of farmer on said board , from northern IL, said it looks like they are done with corn, not going to fight the mud, wet corn this fall and possible frost damage. One said he went thru it in 1974, triple 40 corn is no fun (40% moisture, 40# test weight, 40 bu./ acre). I asked him if $5.50 corn would change his mind, he asked how late he would have to plant, I thru out June 20th. He might stick some more in for that. My thought are that the current price is not going to get the corn planted that we need to avoid a major problem in the livestock sector.
Last thought for the day, IL is in bad shape is an understatement and we are not alone, maybe there are some garden spots out there, but this is going to be one production night mare for this market to digest. If this weather pattern continues, and I see nothing out there that it is changing, it is going to be hard to make a 12 billion bu. crop.
I personally will fight to get the rest of my corn in but mother nature may not be willing to let me.
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