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Supply and demand tables?
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JonSCKs
Posted 5/22/2019 09:54 (#7512613 - in reply to #7512576)
Subject: The Soybean Balance Sheet is TIGHTER than Corn.. D/C Beans?


Because of the Lateness of getting the crops in at this point.. 19%..and the LACK OF PRICE INCENTIVE.. vs taking Prevented Plantings.. which Corn PP would be better..

I hit the yields harder on soybeans and I assume that some (like me..) will NOT plant soybeans at these prices.. and will switch to other crops.. Sorghum etc.. thus the Yield hit..  Double Crop Soybeans.. usually about 5 8.. to as much as 10 12% will be curtailed as the Wheat crop is LATE.. and if we plant a Double crop at ALL.. Yields will be reduced.

Therefore we actually cut Soybean Carry out in half.

             
Soybeans 17/18 18/19 19/20 Pro 19/20 Rev Change Change
        Jon SCKs    
             
Planted 90.2 89.2 84.6 82 -2.6 96.93%
Harvested 89.5 88.1 83.8 81.18 -2.62 96.87%
             
Yield 49.3 51.6 49.5 45 -4.5 90.91%
             
Production 4412 4544 4150 3653.1 -496.9 88.03%
             
Stocks 302 438 995 999 4 100.40%
Imports 22 17 20 21 1 105.00%
Total Supply 4735 4999 5165 4673.1 -491.9 90.48%
             
Crushing 2055 2100 2115 2115 0 100.00%
Exports 2129 1775 1950 1950 0 100.00%
Seed 104 98 96 91 -5 94.79%
Residual 9 31 34 32 -2 94.12%
             
Total Use 4297 4004 4195 4188 -7 99.83%
             
Ending Stocks 438 995 970 485.1 -484.9 50.01%
             
Price 9.33 8.55 8.1      


Edited by JonSCKs 5/22/2019 10:09
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