East Central South Dakota | A few people on here took steps at re-owning their PP bushels to manage a rally off of the spring price on their PP corn acres. That may or may not prove to be a sound move, but my worry is that maybe the funds and commercials don't run for the exit, maintain their short position and simply let basis do the heavy lifting on corn origination/price----especially because the flooding is geographic by nature and by the fact our markets today are more domestically driven then export driven. In an export driven market the exporter will give a bid at the PNW or gulf and start working backwards subtracting the tariff and freight to get to the interior bid and futures plays a role in that---will it today? ? There is really no solid way to protect yourself from a basis rally other than owning the raw commodity and some of us won't raise the corn to participate in a basis led rally......
Today farming has become the board game of chess.. How you move your pieces in the game of production, crop insurance and marketing has become very significant. Are we thinking on just today's move or three moves from now, that matters 6 months to a year from now ? ? Interesting times indeed..... |
Basis risk for your PP acres........
