|
Iowa | Yeah this is true too- seems like every year we get a case of backyarditis, and make decisions off of it.
Im getting to be a believer that because of the changes made in the area that is now the "corn belt" we have much less volitility on yield than what we used to have. That is in the "old days" where corn was primarily grown in IA, IL, OH IN, MN east NE, an event like this would be a game changer. Look at last year -- some of the highest yielding counties in IA and MN had a bad year -- even with our local basis the tightest since 2012, it didn't even dent numbers on the CBOT. I think some of the "fringe" acres have more upside than what some "cornbelt" acres do downside. Of course this year could be different as theres a good chance some cornbelt ground wont get planted. I'll use an example so nobody misunderstands. My area NW IA has been really solid for 20+ years - last year was our turn, many areas were anywhere from 70-50% of normal yeilds. However there were enough fields that still preformed above avereage, that our county yields here not off much at all. Couple that with areas in Kansas, dryland Nebraska, the former cotton belt - that percentage wise are having bigger increases than the "corn belt" can have for yield loss and it removes a lot of the shock to the system of a hiccup in the traditional "corn states". Corn belt states dont usually do 140% of their APH, but "fringe acre" areas can.
Not trying to "kill the crop" but the fields I've walked in NW IA/SW MN (I'm also a seed rep) are really pitiful. Of course I'm only called when a guy thinks he screwed up - so its a minority of the acres for sure, but what I have walked - its not very good. Even my own where I was being patient in my mind, I see spots where I did worse than I thought. I would say with what I've seen 3-4% of the planted acres (regaurdless of if we're talking spots or whole fields) are junk -- mudded in, 3/4-1 inch seeding depth. We wont really know the damage until after harvest -- really hard to say what happens. Too young to remember but didnt it take till 95 unitl 93 hit the market? | |
|
Illinois
