So what if we lost 4-5 million acres of corn and the USDA cut the trend on the July estimate? Bullish, right?

NO! These people intend to be the wet blanket on a fire. Below is the Conan preview of what you will see from our friends at USDA and why you should have some targets IN PLACE and sell part of the rally.

Put on your bearish USDA "statistician" hat now. 

So the first thing the WAOB will do is alter the beginning stocks. They are going to take a little from here and a little from there. So for 18/19 marketing year, going into the June and July estimates, expect them to drop some on feed, ethanol, and exports. For my estimate, they will drop the 18/19 feed by 50 MB, ethanol by 50 MB, and exports by a further 100 MB, and thus raise the carryout for the current year (carry-in of 19/20) to 2,295 from the May estimate of 2,095.

The next thing they will do is cut back use on the growing crop. They will split the difference between the May estimates and the low end of use in each category over the past 4-5 years. I will put my estimates of what the WAOB and USDA will attempt to do to our rally.

I presume 4.8 million acres of corn PP, which is more than any actual industry people are saying currently. I also will drop trend yield by 1% for the July report because that's the kind of thing USDA does, never overly dramatic.

That's what they will do. Notice the ending stocks don't change really. Stocks use on the July is 16.3% vs 16.9% on the actual USDA May report. They will offset the real decrease in production with more supply from last year and lower use from this coming year, all while saying the price will remain the same. 

You heard it here first. The Wet Blanket Brigade is coming to put out the fire. Their purpose is to have an affordable and abundant food supply. Their reports intend to make that occur and have a smoothing effect on market movements.