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| J P - 5/18/2019 08:58
Failures spawn the largest moves. I think its important to mention it because reading through the posts, it's obvious this concept is not understood and I prefer people not get hurt if it can be avoided. Most here are trying to gauge how big an event is to come up with what price will do. The truth is price already has all the energy its going and thus where its heading has already been determined as well. Seen it poo pooed numerous times already but simply put, if the dimensions of price snap back into alignment ie...a parabolic move, the idea of corn trading mid 5$ I should be expected not rejected.
Good luck and take care
Good observation.
Weather can not reliably be predicted. We can make guesses - like looking at the persistent pattern in the 6-10 day. This is the perfect water pump out of the Gulf right now, and it appears that it wants to stick around - given the way the 6-10 has been looking. A clockwise flow in the SE and a counter clockwise flow to the west creates a "funnel" up into the middle of the country. Now, this is where the guessing really comes in - what if that pattern is persistent. Trends in weather are like trends in another chaotic system - markets - they can persist longer than most think possible. The dryness in the SE pushes north as the spring turns to summer, and the center moves into the eastern corn belt. A guess out even longer would be that the next season that pulls back into Iowa. I remember Elwynn Taylor talking about this when he used to give daily comments on WOI (a long time ago).
One more thought, as long as I'm making guesses about possibilities (g). In each of the last three "thirty year bulls" in corn, there was a counter trend rally. If we were to finally see that counter trend rally, the target would be right where you put it, J P, in the mid $5 range - but not for futures - for average monthly cash.
Again, FWIW - just guesses at what might be possible based on history. We all know what guesses are worth. | |
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