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JonSCKs

Posted 5/16/2019 08:35 (#7499752 - in reply to #7499745)
Subject: Ethanol update.. fair market access = opportunity.

Well the current story above not withstanding on Pruitt's legacy hit job lives on..

Margins still suck.. but the numbers are encouraging.. we are making progress.

Production is up.. overall we lag a year ago by 1.4%, Gasoline demand is down.. thanks to too high of prices.. but ethanol blend rate is improving. We probably are buying our way into the market.. while losing $$$ to do it.

Computed

Weekly Production

number to balance

Computed

Actual

Total

Weekly bu

Weekly US

Week

Blenders Input

Imports

Stocks

Capacity

Residual and exports

Exports

Ethanol

Grind

Monthly

Year

Supplied Finished

Ethanol k bbls/day

k bbls /day

k bbls

k bbls /day

k bbls

Monthly

EIA

demand

myn bu

Motor Gasoline

37,936

2.85

conversion

Ethanol as % of

9/7/2018	1020	918	0	22,894	60%	74.7	523			992.7	105,221			9649	9.51%
9/14/2018	1051	928	0	22,746	60%	144.1	1009			1072.1	108,419			9534	9.73%
9/21/2018	1036	901	0	22,629	60%	151.7	1062			1052.7	106,872			8987	10.03%
9/28/2018	1015	917	0	23,445	62%	-18.6	-130	2464	2141	898.4	104,705			9102	10.07%
10/5/2018	1040	913	71	24,021	63%	115.7	810			1028.7	107,284			9078	10.06%
10/12/2018	1011	933	0	24,130	64%	62.4	437			995.4	104,293			9182	10.16%
10/19/2018	1024	940	15	23,897	63%	132.3	926			1072.3	105,634			9324	10.08%
10/26/2018	1059	936	0	22,746	60%	287.4	2012	4185	4178	1223.4	109,244			9262	10.11%
11/2/2018	1068	917	0	23,150	61%	93.3	653			1010.3	110,173			9099	10.08%
11/9/2018	1067	926	37	23,514	62%	126.0	882			1052.0	110,069			9192	10.07%
11/16/2018	1042	928	0	22,791	60%	217.3	1521			1145.3	107,491			9185	10.10%
11/23/2018	1048	924	0	22,930	60%	104.1	729			1028.1	108,109			9188	10.06%
11/30/2018	1069	896	0	23,030	61%	158.7	1111	4896	3620	1054.7	110,276			8877	10.09%
12/7/2018	1046	910	0	22,890	60%	156.0	1092			1066.0	107,903			9036	10.07%
12/14/2018	1046	924	0	23,873	63%	-18.4	-129			905.6	107,903			9243	10.00%
12/21/2018	1042	935	0	23,133	61%	212.7	1489			1147.7	107,491			9348	10.00%
12/28/2018	1011	868	0	23,162	61%	138.9	972	3424	3330	1006.9	104,293			8623	10.07%
1/4/2019	1000	815	0	23,254	61%	171.9	1203			986.9	103,158			8735	9.33%
1/11/2019	1051	862	0	23,351	62%	175.1	1226			1037.1	108,419			8565	10.06%
1/18/2019	1031	883	0	23,501	62%	126.6	886			1009.6	106,356			8868	9.96%
1/25/2019	1012	870	0	23,980	63%	73.6	515	3830	3048	943.6	104,396			9564	9.10%
2/1/2019	967	887	0	23,947	63%	84.7	593			971.7	99,754			9073	9.78%
2/8/2019	1029	873	0	23,466	62%	224.7	1573			1097.7	106,149			8648	10.09%
2/15/2019	996	887	0	23,913	63%	45.1	316			932.1	102,745			8800	10.08%
2/22/2019	1028	882	0	23,709	62%	175.1	1226	3708	2715	1057.1	106,046			8981	9.82%
3/1/2019	1024	895	0	24,261	64%	50.1	351			945.1	105,634			9062	9.88%
3/8/2019	1005	921	0	23,731	63%	159.7	1118			1080.7	103,674			9140	10.08%
3/15/2019	1004	909	0	24,412	64%	-2.3	-16			906.7	103,571			9409	9.66%
3/22/2019	975	920	0	24,448	64%	49.9	349			969.9	100,579			9124	10.08%
3/29/2019	999	909	0	23,992	63%	155.1	1086	2888		1064.1	103,055			9131	9.96%
4/5/2019	1002	919	0	23,193	61%	197.1	1380			1116.1	103,364			9806	9.37%
4/12/2019	1016	924	0	22,676	60%	165.9	1161			1089.9	104,808			9420	9.81%
4/19/2019	1048	928	0	22,747	60%	109.9	769			1037.9	108,109			9409	9.86%
4/26/2019	1024	928	0	22,695	60%	103.4	724	4034		1031.4	105,634			9228	10.06%
5/3/2019	1036	919	0	22,468	59%	149.4	1046			1068.4	106,872			9871	9.31%
5/10/2019	1051	953	0	22,250	59%	129.1	904			1082.1	108,419			9148	10.42%

												Q2 grind
18/19 MY 36 wks	1027.6	908.3	3.4	23360.4	61.6%	124.5	871.6	3678.6	3172.0	1032.8	106,003	105,404		9163.6	9.92%
17/18 MY 37 wks	1042.7	901.8	2.9	22193.7	58.5%	143.0	1001.0	4346.3	3453.6	1044.8	107,560	109,030		9227.8	9.78%
											-1,556.9	-3,626
18/19 vs 17/18	-1.4%	0.7%	18.1%	5.3%		-12.9%	-12.9%	-15.4%	-8.2%	-1.1%	-1.4%	-47,143	bu lower	-0.7%	1.4%
							estimated		Reported
	1058	942	Last year	21505.0	yr ago		1271
		-6.3	Lost per week											9313.9

Weekly production number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yop_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Blenders Input.. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yir_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Imports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_IM0_NUS-Z00_MBBLD&f=W

Weekly Stocks number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W

Weekly US Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGFUPUS2&f=W

Monthly US Exports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPOOXE_EEX_NUS-Z00_MBBL&f=M

(20190515_084147 (full).jpg)

Attachments
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20190515_084147 (full).jpg (103KB - 19 downloads)

RINS Waivers - LongKC : 5/16/2019 08:08
- RE: RINS Waivers - LongKC : 5/16/2019 08:22
  - RE: RINS Waivers - Grhog : 5/16/2019 19:45
- They Cooked it!! Trump administration.. gonna fix this? - JonSCKs : 5/16/2019 08:30
  - Ethanol update.. fair market access = opportunity. - JonSCKs : 5/16/2019 08:35
    - RE: Ethanol update.. fair market access = opportunity. - LongKC : 5/16/2019 08:38
    - New ethanol fuel option - JonSCKs : 5/16/2019 08:41
      - Something needs to be done with the deceptive E88 label - PeteMN : 5/16/2019 12:59
        
        RE: Something needs to be done with the deceptive E88 label - peaceman : 5/16/2019 13:51
        RE: Something needs to be done with the deceptive E88 label - mac4440 : 5/16/2019 13:58
        RE: Something needs to be done with the deceptive E88 label - AVP_Matt : 5/16/2019 14:45

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