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Since I haven’t heard from certain fork people
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J P
Posted 5/17/2019 08:45 (#7501340 - in reply to #7500557)
Subject: RE: Since I haven’t heard from certain fork people


ltct04 - 5/16/2019 20:32

I get it say something wrong and it's going to get thrown on your face for awhile. But if the weather has nothing to do with this rally if it stays extremely wet then why were you so worried about being hedged 2 years out?


Oh not worried at all. Been rock solid and I have said absolutely nothing wrong.  Century has spent more time hoping I am wrong - worried that he was wrong than I did guaranteed. My plan all along selling two years out was IF 335 stuck, I would need to cover all of it. I already knew that before the sales were even made but I also know that marketing an expected failure in price is dangerous because price does not fail very often - but we can talk ourselves into a failure alot. So for me the chart formation offered two options. One being the shortest path to the low was to unfold substantially lower and just get it over with. The other is a larger degree pullback which again was already plainly visible on the chart way last summer and why I did my best then to help people expect it - not be blind sided by it. But, for me being a farmer and a trader - I have to sometimes question whether my natural bias of wanting higher prices is tainting my vision as a trader. So it was appropriate to manage risk until I was absolutely sure what would happen. So a 4.05 sale + a . 30 cent roll - heck I am already way ahead of the game and that before I do anything with reownership - or more rolls. Again, I had a plan before I ever made the sales. No sweat - just execute the plan..that's all.

The weather does not matter nor does any other event. The event will just show up magically when it needs to. So lets think about this. If this develops badly, why now? If it is random, it could have shown up anytime in the last 50 years - just like the 2012 drought did. Why does it show up now and only now when the market structure supports a larger degree correction of price? Because it is not random in any stretch of the imagination, - we are on a predefined path with the events already in cue to unfold as they should - when they need to.  That's how we were able to discuss the larger degree correction nearly a year ago because the event does not matter - only the energy available to the event does. 

Take care

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