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Saudi Aramco Prospectus.. Wanna buy an Oil Co?
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JonSCKs
Posted 4/15/2019 08:14 (#7440382)
Subject: Saudi Aramco Prospectus.. Wanna buy an Oil Co?


So the Much anticipated Saudi Aramco Prospectus is out..

https://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/6727U_1-2019-4-1.pdf

Which is Historic for a couple of reasons..

Matt Simmons authored a book.. "twilight in the desert" during about the peak of the Peak Oil craze.. suggesting that the Kingdom's largest Oil field.. Ghawar.. was nearing the end of it's productive life.

Ghawar was discovered by an American Geologist in the.. 1930's give or take.. it has been BY FAR the LARGEST discovery EVER.. pumping out a Massive 5 million bbls per day for a couple of decades now.

In the Prospectus.. there's a little bit for both sides to claim..

In 2018 Ghawar only did 3.8 mln bbls per day.. so this is Down from 5.. was Matt right?

However, as Robert Rapier suggests.. Aramco holds spare capacity in reserve and they water Flood Ghawar.. they could be just idling it back to build pressure and support world oil prices..

http://www.rrapier.com/2019/04/the-permian-basin-is-now-the-worlds-top-oil-producer/2/

Anywho.. Rapier makes the claim that the Permian Basin is now the Largest Oil Field (Basin.. key word) vs Ghawar..  ???

maybe..

The US used to have a Ban on exporting Crude.. which was lifted.. and now we are a player.. but it has costs..

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/As-petroleum-exports-grow-so-do-risks-13699485.php


Rapier also gleaned that Aramco's costs are higher than thunked..

http://www.rrapier.com/2019/04/saudi-aramcos-breakeven-oil-price-is-higher-than-expected/

So we are NOT running out of Crude.. but it's costing more.

Which leads us back to Ethanol.. which adding a million bbls per day to the US gasoline Mix saves about 2 million barrels per day of demand.. as there's only about 21'ish gallons of gasoline in a 42 gallon barrel.

Irwin at U of Ill.. says that US Gasoline demand could be rolling over..

https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2019/04/implications-of-recent-trends-in-u-s-gasoline-consumption-for-ethanol.html

but of course the Aramco Prospectus contradicts that.. as they say demand is tied to GDP.. and alternatives are over rated.. like electric cars..

???

I can electric cars in Southern California the land of $4 gasoline..

Minnesota.. would you like Heat with your commute?  Or Flyover country.. Electric Tractors?  Electric 3/4 4 wd pickups..  

not so much..

..

I think we need US ethanol policy which allows to ramp usage up and down like the flex fuel model in Brazil where they burn more of which ever is cheaper..


Right now that's Ethanol at a $0.73 spread.

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