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Ethanol update. Ethanol at $0.72 discount to RBOB
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JonSCKs
Posted 4/11/2019 08:41 (#7432620)
Subject: Ethanol update. Ethanol at $0.72 discount to RBOB


CBOT May Ethanol futures are trading at $1.325

NYMEX May RBOB Futures are trading at $2.045

Thus High Octane, Low Carbon, Less Toxic Ethanol is trading at a $0.72 per gallon Discount to RBOB after trading at Par in July of 2017 BEFORE the Illegal Small Refinery Waivers started to impact the markets.

In spite of Big Oil's influence on current policy.. We got a good week of usage with Blended Ethanol at 919 k bbls.  Since Sept 1st 2018 Domestic Blended Ethanol is up an average of 6 k bbls per day..  If we had the Infrastructure in place for the market to respond more quickly to the price discount.. I would think we could see ALOT more ethanol blended.

Ethanol production at 1,002 k bbls per day was up slightly.. Given the poor margins and weather factors plants are not pushing hard with some taking maintence..  We should see an uptick in production going forward.  There are I believe 3 new plants coming online.. adding about 200 myn gallons of capacity soon.. as well as about 6 expansions.

For the crop year.. since Sept 1st.. ethanol production is down 1.8%  Chatter last week from the Grain Co Products reports show that grain processed for ethanol was down notably Q2 17/18 to Q2 18/19.. This appears to be accurate as this quarter has been more challenging from the Illegal Waivers, Poor Profitability and weather challenges.. However, it's still possible to get back in the game..

We have the Crop, We have the Capacity and We SHOULD HAVE ACCESS to the Markets to promote a Cleaner, Cheaper and Better Low Carbon fuel.

Implied Disappearance was also up to 197 k bbls.. again this could be in transport but also could show up in exports.  This is the time of year where we made huge sales a year ago at this time where we exported RECORD Volumes similar to disappearance we saw this week.  Total Disappearance at 1,116.1 k bbls was the highest for 2019.

          Computed          
 Weekly Production      number to balanceComputedActualTotal Weekly bu  Weekly US  
Week Blenders InputImportsStocksCapacityResidual and exportsExportsExportsEthanolGrindMonthlyYearSupplied Finished 
 Ethanol k bbls/dayk bbls /dayk bbls /day k bbls k bbls k bbls /dayk bblsMonthlyEIAdemand  myn buMotor Gasoline 
        37,936       2.85conversion  Ethanol as % of
                      
9/7/20181020 918 0 22,89460% 74.7 523  992.7105,221  96499.51% 
9/14/20181051 928 0 22,74660% 144.1 1009  1072.1108,419  95349.73% 
9/21/20181036 901 0 22,62960% 151.7 1062  1052.7106,872  898710.03% 
9/28/20181015 917 0 23,44562% -18.6 -13024642141898.4104,705425,217 910210.07% 
10/5/20181040 913 71 24,02163% 115.7 810  1028.7107,284  907810.06% 
10/12/20181011 933 0 24,13064% 62.4 437  995.4104,293  918210.16% 
10/19/20181024 940 15 23,89763% 132.3 926  1072.3105,634  932410.08% 
10/26/20181059 936 0 22,74660% 287.4 2012418541781223.4109,244426,455 926210.11% 
11/2/20181068 917 0 23,15061% 93.3 653  1010.3110,173  909910.08% 
11/9/20181067 926 37 23,51462% 126.0 882  1052.0110,069  919210.07% 
11/16/20181042 928 0 22,79160% 217.3 1521  1145.3107,491  918510.10% 
11/23/20181048 924 0 22,93060% 104.1 729  1028.1108,109  918810.06% 
11/30/20181069 896 0 23,03061% 158.7 1111489636201054.7110,276546,118 887710.09% 
12/7/20181046 910 0 22,89060% 156.0 1092  1066.0107,903  903610.07% 
12/14/20181046 924 0 23,87363% -18.4 -129  905.6107,903  924310.00% 
12/21/20181042 935 0 23,13361% 212.7 1489  1147.7107,491  934810.00% 
12/28/20181011 868 0 23,16261% 138.9 972342433301006.9104,293427,589 862310.07% 
1/4/20191000 815 0 23,25461% 171.9 1203  986.9103,158  87359.33% 
1/11/20191051 862 0 23,35162% 175.1 1226  1037.1108,419  856510.06% 
1/18/20191031 883 0 23,50162% 126.6 886  1009.6106,356  88689.96% 
1/25/20191012 870 0 23,98063% 73.6 51538303048943.6104,396422,328 95649.10% 
2/1/2019967 887 0 23,94763% 84.7 593  971.799,754  90739.78% 
2/8/20191029 873 0 23,46662% 224.7 1573  1097.7106,149  864810.09% 
2/15/2019996 887 0 23,91363% 45.1 316  932.1102,745  880010.08% 
2/22/20191028 882 0 23,70962% 175.1 12263708 1057.1106,046414,695 89819.82% 
3/1/20191024 895 0 24,26164% 50.1 351  945.1105,634  90629.88% 
3/8/20191005 921 0 23,73163% 159.7 1118  1080.7103,674  914010.08% 
3/15/20191004 909 0 24,41264% -2.3 -16  906.7103,571  94099.66% 
3/22/2019975 920 0 24,44864% 49.9 349  969.9100,579  912410.08% 
3/29/2019999 909 0 23,99263% 155.1 10862888 1064.1103,055516,512 91319.96% 
4/5/20191002 919 0 23,19361% 197.1 13801380 1116.1103,364  98069.37% 
                 Q2 grind    
18/19 MY 31 wks1026.4 904.2 4.0 23488.461.9% 123.4 863.73346.93263.41028.1105,880105,404 9123.19.92% 
17/18 MY 32 wks1045.5 898.3 3.3 22265.958.7% 148.0 1035.74521.73394.71046.4107,848109,030 9190.39.78% 
                -1,968.4-3,626    
18/19 vs 17/18-1.8% 0.7% 18.7% 5.5%  -16.6% -16.6%-26.0%-3.9%-1.7%-1.8%-47,143bu lower-0.7%1.5% 
            estimatedReported      
 1034 904 Last year21846.0yr ago 213 1489         

 

Weekly production number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yop_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Blenders Input.. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yir_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Imports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_IM0_NUS-Z00_MBBLD&f=W

Weekly Stocks number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W

Weekly US Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGFUPUS2&f=W

Monthly US Exports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPOOXE_EEX_NUS-Z00_MBBL&f=M






Edited by JonSCKs 4/11/2019 09:07
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