Posted 4/10/2019 09:06 (#7430754) Subject: Corn Case Study- 2016
I'm not one to do a lot of historical look backs and try to find an "analog" year to the one we are currently experiencing because I believe strongly in that line all of the futures brokers put at the bottom of every publication: "Past results are not indicative of future earnings." But I picked up on the similarities in the corn market with my eyes- which is a pretty good sign of similarities.
At the end of March 2016, corn was trading at $3.54 (CK16) and the speculative position was short around 250,000 contracts.
At the end of March this year, corn was trading around $3.60 and the speculative position was short around 270,000 contracts.
June 13, 2016 the July corn contract was trading for $4.42 and the speculative positions was long about 250,000 contracts.
I have no idea what it will be this summer but there is definitely opportunity here, as grim as the market may feel today.
Hang in there all, it can be tough to look at right now but there is hope.