Posted 3/13/2019 21:26 (#7378963) Subject: Has it occurred to anyone else that ......
Has it occurred to anyone else that it's really unfair to expect us to make planting decisions without knowing how this trade war deal will end up? After all, we only get to make planting decisions once each year. Once that seed is in the ground, we're committed. Most other industries have more flexibility than we do. They can hurry up or slow down their production at least to some degree.
Seriously now, if someone told you tonight that there would not be a trade deal signed this year and in all likelihood China would be out of the US soybean market for at least the coming year, how much soybean would you plant? And if soybean acres were to be cut significantly, would you plant it all to corn, knowing what the corn price was likely to be?
Last fall, the administration said the soybean bailout was a one-time deal, not going to happen again, because producers should be able to anticipate prices and adjust their planting accordingly this coming year. Honestly, are we really in any better position to adjust plantings now? I can't see how? And there are quite a number of producers in southern states who are just days away from planting, corn at least.
The uncertainty caused by this unresolved trade dispute is at least as great as any weather risk this year.
I think the administration owes us an answer before the planters roll. It's only fair. Otherwise, they better plan on another "market adjustment" program.
We deserve to know how this trade war deal is going to go before the planters roll next month.