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Corn,Soybean,Wheat 10 day price forecast
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Don Smith
Posted 3/13/2019 12:32 (#7377780)
Subject: Corn,Soybean,Wheat 10 day price forecast



Central Pennsylvania, USA
Linear trend projected price forecasts are better than a 50/50 coin toss, until the trend changes. Volatility changes can,and do, induce trend changes. If we assume that the 30 trailing day linear trend won't change in the next 10 market days, then the trend projected price forecast will be better than a coin toss.

Table below shows the trend projected price change forecast for Ag commodities over the next 10 market days, starting 2019_03-13:

commodity_______ 30 day volatility____price change forecast
Corn________________0.80 %___________-0.18 %/day
Soybeans____________0.56 %________ __ -0.13 %/day
Wheat (SR)__________2.01 %___________ -0.73 %/day

Attached charts show the parts diagram for these forecasts. The charts use commodity futures ETF daily closing price as input data. Because the charts show volatility and price change in % , they also apply to the ETF underlying futures market price. The charts are 'backwards' in time (trailing time). Market days for the past are positive (+) trailing market days, market days for the future are negative (-) trailing market days.



(Screenshot from 2019-03-13 12-11-47 (full).png)



(Screenshot from 2019-03-13 12-11-35 (full).png)



(Screenshot from 2019-03-13 12-11-00 (full).png)



Attachments
----------------
Attachments Screenshot from 2019-03-13 12-11-47 (full).png (67KB - 2 downloads)
Attachments Screenshot from 2019-03-13 12-11-35 (full).png (66KB - 3 downloads)
Attachments Screenshot from 2019-03-13 12-11-00 (full).png (68KB - 4 downloads)
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