| US Ethanol plants are struggling under tight margins which shows up in production being down vs a year ago. The marketing year to date shows ethanol production down 15 k bbls per day or 1.5%.
Contrary to what I posted above.. and the reason is calendar year vs marketing year.. the Domestic Blended is up.. on my report by 0.7% (not much difference) up 6 k bbls / day.
Ethanol stocks at 23.731 million barrels are BELOW the year ago number of 24.281.. but not by much. Implied exports are lower and this is the time of the year when we make headway.. so that's a little disappointing.
Gasoline usage is down about 1% year on year.. while the ethanol blend rate is actually a little higher up 1.7%
So.. it's not like Ethanol isn't making some headway.. just not enough. | | | | | | | | | | Computed | | | | | | | | | | | | Weekly Production | | | | | | | number to balance | Computed | Actual | Total | Weekly bu | | Weekly US | | Week | | Blenders Input | Imports | Stocks | Capacity | Residual and exports | Exports | Exports | Ethanol | Grind | Monthly | Year | Supplied Finished | | | Ethanol k bbls/day | k bbls /day | k bbls /day | k bbls | k bbls | | k bbls /day | k bbls | Monthly | EIA | demand | | | myn bu | Motor Gasoline | | | | | | | | | | 37,936 | | | | | | | | 2.85 | conversion | | Ethanol as % of | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 9/7/2018 | 1020 | | 918 | | 0 | | 22,894 | 60% | | 74.7 | | 523 | | | 992.7 | 105,221 | | | 9649 | 9.51% | | 9/14/2018 | 1051 | | 928 | | 0 | | 22,746 | 60% | | 144.1 | | 1009 | | | 1072.1 | 108,419 | | | 9534 | 9.73% | | 9/21/2018 | 1036 | | 901 | | 0 | | 22,629 | 60% | | 151.7 | | 1062 | | | 1052.7 | 106,872 | | | 8987 | 10.03% | | 9/28/2018 | 1015 | | 917 | | 0 | | 23,445 | 62% | | -18.6 | | -130 | 2464 | 2141 | 898.4 | 104,705 | | | 9102 | 10.07% | | 10/5/2018 | 1040 | | 913 | | 71 | | 24,021 | 63% | | 115.7 | | 810 | | | 1028.7 | 107,284 | | | 9078 | 10.06% | | 10/12/2018 | 1011 | | 933 | | 0 | | 24,130 | 64% | | 62.4 | | 437 | | | 995.4 | 104,293 | | | 9182 | 10.16% | | 10/19/2018 | 1024 | | 940 | | 15 | | 23,897 | 63% | | 132.3 | | 926 | | | 1072.3 | 105,634 | | | 9324 | 10.08% | | 10/26/2018 | 1059 | | 936 | | 0 | | 22,746 | 60% | | 287.4 | | 2012 | 4185 | 4178 | 1223.4 | 109,244 | | | 9262 | 10.11% | | 11/2/2018 | 1068 | | 917 | | 0 | | 23,150 | 61% | | 93.3 | | 653 | | | 1010.3 | 110,173 | | | 9099 | 10.08% | | 11/9/2018 | 1067 | | 926 | | 37 | | 23,514 | 62% | | 126.0 | | 882 | | | 1052.0 | 110,069 | | | 9192 | 10.07% | | 11/16/2018 | 1042 | | 928 | | 0 | | 22,791 | 60% | | 217.3 | | 1521 | | | 1145.3 | 107,491 | | | 9185 | 10.10% | | 11/23/2018 | 1048 | | 924 | | 0 | | 22,930 | 60% | | 104.1 | | 729 | | | 1028.1 | 108,109 | | | 9188 | 10.06% | | 11/30/2018 | 1069 | | 896 | | 0 | | 23,030 | 61% | | 158.7 | | 1111 | 4896 | 3620 | 1054.7 | 110,276 | | | 8877 | 10.09% | | 12/7/2018 | 1046 | | 910 | | 0 | | 22,890 | 60% | | 156.0 | | 1092 | | | 1066.0 | 107,903 | | | 9036 | 10.07% | | 12/14/2018 | 1046 | | 924 | | 0 | | 23,873 | 63% | | -18.4 | | -129 | | | 905.6 | 107,903 | | | 9243 | 10.00% | | 12/21/2018 | 1042 | | 935 | | 0 | | 23,133 | 61% | | 212.7 | | 1489 | | | 1147.7 | 107,491 | | | 9348 | 10.00% | | 12/28/2018 | 1011 | | 868 | | 0 | | 23,162 | 61% | | 138.9 | | 972 | 3424 | 3330 | 1006.9 | 104,293 | | | 8623 | 10.07% | | 1/4/2019 | 1000 | | 815 | | 0 | | 23,254 | 61% | | 171.9 | | 1203 | | | 986.9 | 103,158 | | | 8735 | 9.33% | | 1/11/2019 | 1051 | | 862 | | 0 | | 23,351 | 62% | | 175.1 | | 1226 | | | 1037.1 | 108,419 | | | 8565 | 10.06% | | 1/18/2019 | 1031 | | 883 | | 0 | | 23,501 | 62% | | 126.6 | | 886 | | | 1009.6 | 106,356 | | | 8868 | 9.96% | | 1/25/2019 | 1012 | | 870 | | 0 | | 23,980 | 63% | | 73.6 | | 515 | 3830 | | 943.6 | 104,396 | | | 9564 | 9.10% | | 2/1/2019 | 967 | | 887 | | 0 | | 23,947 | 63% | | 84.7 | | 593 | | | 971.7 | 99,754 | | | 9073 | 9.78% | | 2/8/2019 | 1029 | | 873 | | 0 | | 23,466 | 62% | | 224.7 | | 1573 | | | 1097.7 | 106,149 | | | 8648 | 10.09% | | 2/15/2019 | 996 | | 887 | | 0 | | 23,913 | 63% | | 45.1 | | 316 | | | 932.1 | 102,745 | | | 8800 | 10.08% | | 2/22/2019 | 1028 | | 882 | | 0 | | 23,709 | 62% | | 175.1 | | 1226 | 3708 | | 1057.1 | 106,046 | | | 8981 | 9.82% | | 3/1/2019 | 1024 | | 895 | | 0 | | 24,261 | 64% | | 50.1 | | 351 | | | 945.1 | 105,634 | | | 9062 | 9.88% | | 3/8/2019 | 1005 | | 921 | | 0 | | 23,731 | 63% | | 159.7 | | 1118 | 1469 | | 1080.7 | 103,674 | | | 9140 | 10.08% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 18/19 MY 27 wks | 1031.0 | | 903.3 | | 4.6 | | 23410.9 | 61.7% | | 126.9 | | 888.0 | 3425.1 | 3317.3 | 1030.2 | 106,360 | | | 9086.9 | 9.94% | | 17/18 MY 28 wks | 1046.3 | | 897.4 | | 3.8 | | 22203.3 | 58.5% | | 137.5 | | 962.4 | 4389.7 | 3106.8 | 1034.9 | 107,929 | | | 9181.5 | 9.78% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | -1,569.3 | | | | | | 18/19 vs 17/18 | -1.5% | | 0.7% | | 19.2% | | 5.4% | | | -7.7% | | -7.7% | -22.0% | 6.8% | -0.5% | -1.5% | | | -1.0% | 1.7% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | estimated | Reported | | | | | | | | 1025 | | 910 | | Last year | 24281.0 | yr ago | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Weekly production number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yop_nus_mbbld&f=w Weekly Blenders Input.. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yir_nus_mbbld&f=w Weekly Imports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_IM0_NUS-Z00_MBBLD&f=W Weekly Stocks number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W Weekly US Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGFUPUS2&f=W Monthly US Exports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPOOXE_EEX_NUS-Z00_MBBL&f=M |