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RIN Waivers lead to first decline in Domestic Ethanol usage in two decades
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JonSCKs
Posted 3/13/2019 12:44 (#7377805 - in reply to #7377580)
Subject: Weekly ethanol update. Ethanol stocks fall below year ago.


US Ethanol plants are struggling under tight margins which shows up in production being down vs a year ago.  The marketing year to date shows ethanol production down 15 k bbls per day or 1.5%.

Contrary to what I posted above.. and the reason is calendar year vs marketing year.. the Domestic Blended is up.. on my report by 0.7% (not much difference) up 6 k bbls / day.

Ethanol stocks at 23.731 million barrels are BELOW the year ago number of 24.281.. but not by much.  Implied exports are lower and this is the time of the year when we make headway.. so that's a little disappointing.

Gasoline usage is down about 1% year on year.. while the ethanol blend rate is actually a little higher up 1.7%

So.. it's not like Ethanol isn't making some headway.. just not enough.

          Computed          
 Weekly Production      number to balanceComputedActualTotal Weekly bu  Weekly US  
Week Blenders InputImportsStocksCapacityResidual and exportsExportsExportsEthanolGrindMonthlyYearSupplied Finished 
 Ethanol k bbls/dayk bbls /dayk bbls /day k bbls k bbls k bbls /dayk bblsMonthlyEIAdemand  myn buMotor Gasoline 
        37,936       2.85conversion Ethanol as % of
                      
9/7/20181020 918 0 22,89460% 74.7 523  992.7105,221  96499.51% 
9/14/20181051 928 0 22,74660% 144.1 1009  1072.1108,419  95349.73% 
9/21/20181036 901 0 22,62960% 151.7 1062  1052.7106,872  898710.03% 
9/28/20181015 917 0 23,44562% -18.6 -13024642141898.4104,705  910210.07% 
10/5/20181040 913 71 24,02163% 115.7 810  1028.7107,284  907810.06% 
10/12/20181011 933 0 24,13064% 62.4 437  995.4104,293  918210.16% 
10/19/20181024 940 15 23,89763% 132.3 926  1072.3105,634  932410.08% 
10/26/20181059 936 0 22,74660% 287.4 2012418541781223.4109,244  926210.11% 
11/2/20181068 917 0 23,15061% 93.3 653  1010.3110,173  909910.08% 
11/9/20181067 926 37 23,51462% 126.0 882  1052.0110,069  919210.07% 
11/16/20181042 928 0 22,79160% 217.3 1521  1145.3107,491  918510.10% 
11/23/20181048 924 0 22,93060% 104.1 729  1028.1108,109  918810.06% 
11/30/20181069 896 0 23,03061% 158.7 1111489636201054.7110,276  887710.09% 
12/7/20181046 910 0 22,89060% 156.0 1092  1066.0107,903  903610.07% 
12/14/20181046 924 0 23,87363% -18.4 -129  905.6107,903  924310.00% 
12/21/20181042 935 0 23,13361% 212.7 1489  1147.7107,491  934810.00% 
12/28/20181011 868 0 23,16261% 138.9 972342433301006.9104,293  862310.07% 
1/4/20191000 815 0 23,25461% 171.9 1203  986.9103,158  87359.33% 
1/11/20191051 862 0 23,35162% 175.1 1226  1037.1108,419  856510.06% 
1/18/20191031 883 0 23,50162% 126.6 886  1009.6106,356  88689.96% 
1/25/20191012 870 0 23,98063% 73.6 5153830 943.6104,396  95649.10% 
2/1/2019967 887 0 23,94763% 84.7 593  971.799,754  90739.78% 
2/8/20191029 873 0 23,46662% 224.7 1573  1097.7106,149  864810.09% 
2/15/2019996 887 0 23,91363% 45.1 316  932.1102,745  880010.08% 
2/22/20191028 882 0 23,70962% 175.1 12263708 1057.1106,046  89819.82% 
3/1/20191024 895 0 24,26164% 50.1 351  945.1105,634  90629.88% 
3/8/20191005 921 0 23,73163% 159.7 11181469 1080.7103,674  914010.08% 
                      
18/19 MY 27 wks1031.0 903.3 4.6 23410.961.7% 126.9 888.03425.13317.31030.2106,360  9086.99.94% 
17/18 MY 28 wks1046.3 897.4 3.8 22203.358.5% 137.5 962.44389.73106.81034.9107,929  9181.59.78% 
                -1,569.3     
18/19 vs 17/18-1.5% 0.7% 19.2% 5.4%  -7.7% -7.7%-22.0%6.8%-0.5%-1.5%  -1.0%1.7% 
            estimatedReported      
 1025 910 Last year24281.0yr ago             

 

Weekly production number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yop_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Blenders Input.. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yir_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Imports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_IM0_NUS-Z00_MBBLD&f=W

Weekly Stocks number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W

Weekly US Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGFUPUS2&f=W

Monthly US Exports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPOOXE_EEX_NUS-Z00_MBBL&f=M

 

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