Posted 3/13/2019 10:28 (#7377534 - in reply to #7377504) Subject: RE: sigh.. what is this? Quantitative Soybeans?
Jon...I completely understand what you are saying, but s/d and the numbers used in the throughput are never a straight line, so even if the numbers from the past are 'accurate' there is still some ebb and flow in the reality of what China's future needs will be.
If over the last couple years, they were actually using more than the year before, AND building inventory from imports, and also having a larger domestic production, todays import needs may be different than what the straight line approach would imply.
If in reality, they are drawing from stocks (instead of building), still producing a bigger domestic crop, and demand is less than a year ago or 2, (150-200 million less hogs could curtail needs a bit), then what they need to import now...and the rest of this year, and still have a comfortable reserve stock, whatever they decide is acceptable, could be a drastically different number than your straight line approach.