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How your state was impacted by lack of China soy imports
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JonSCKs
Posted 3/13/2019 10:11 (#7377504 - in reply to #7377173)
Subject: sigh.. what is this? Quantitative Soybeans?


you just can't lose 30 MMT of sales without some serious effect..

Nobody has a spare 30 mmt's to fill the void.  South America is going to have a SMALLER Soybean crop than they did 2 years ago.. Conab's estimate yesterday for Brazil.. at 113.5 mmt's.. IF Realized that would only be the 3rd largest crop... not a RECORD 125 mmt's like was thought earlier..  The WASDE's last update was at 116.5.. there are other smaller estimates.. under 113 plus Paraguay probably has some more to trim.. "down by a third from last year's 9 mmt's"  Currently 7.5 at WASDE.. headed to..??  6.8'ish..??

Of course the standard operating procedure is to assume a record crop at the start of every new year and then walk it back.. (or increase it.. which has happened.)

Argentina was the one whom dropped the ball last year.. 55 mmt's turned into 37.8 mmt's after revisions.. etc.  This year.. they may hit or slightly exceed the 55 Mark.. the WASDE I believe is at 54.5 mmt's.. so.. "possible."

Anywho.. what is occuring is that the big push.. ALL from North America in Oct - March .. then ALL from South America from April - Sept.. is changing.

As noted by last week's truck jam on an unpaved road shows.. the infrastructure to MOVE that much TONNAGE (by truck no less..) does not go well..  So.. again your assumptions that US Sales will flatten out this year are flawed..  IMHO.. China has delayed purchases.. again I still see us hitting close to the 58 mmt's that we did last year.. as "it has to come from somewhere.."

Here's the latest..  The WASDE will "probably" trim some more Chinese imports as they trim South American production.. but still before all that.. It's not hard to come up with US exports over 60.. which does seem like a stretch.. probably trim China imports back to 85'ish.. and US around 58 then.

??  fwiw.

World Ag Supply Demand ESTIMATES  WASDE   3/13/2019        
 16/17 17/18 18/1919/20        
               
China Beg Stocks17.14 20.66 23.5222.22        
China Production13.69 15.2 15.9         
China Usage103.5 106.3 105.1         
China Imports93.5 94.1 88         
               
US Exports58.96 57.95 51.71  40 booked thru 2/28/19 + 10 "promised" = 50 + 8.3 Othr LY = 58.3 + 2 from below = ??
US exports to China36.66 27.8 9.4+ 10  promised = 19.4       
US exports to Unkown     2.43+ 0.456 LW       
US Exports to ROW22.3 30.15 29.88forced #        
               
Rest of World Exports to China56.84 66.3 68.6??- 10 from US promised     
               
South America Beg Stocks ***.51.8 60.94 57.254.02 Beg Stox= 3 to 5 months to go.. ***   
South America Imports1.98 5.24 5.61WASDE        
South America Production183.15 169.74 176.98182.48 Brzl 113.5, Argy 54.5, Par 7, Ur 1.98   
South America Domestic 96.49 93.65  98.31        
South America exports79.52 85.57 8993.3        
Net South American Exports77.54 80.33 83.3987.69        
               
Rest of World Trade From S/A22.68 19.27 24.7 5.43y to y      
               
Total World Export Trade147.5 152.99 154.2         
US to ROW22.3 30.15 29.88         
S/A to ROW22.68 19.27 24.7         
China93.5 94.1 88         
ROW to South America1.98 5.24 5.61         
               
Rest of World Trade non China11 14.71 17.23 2.52y to y      
       80%to the US      
               
       2.016       
               
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