Posted 3/13/2019 07:42 (#7377173 - in reply to #7376988) Subject: RE:I posted a chart the other day.
I posted a chart the other day, it doesn't specifically answer your question about other soybean buyers response to the situation but you can see get some sense from it that the increase in sales to other non-chinese buyers was, in fact, quite modest. If you look at the chart below, you'll see weekly accumulated sales for the past few years along with sales so far this market year. The chart doesn't show it but in past years sales to non-Chinese customers have been right in that range of 20 to 22 MMT, (specifically 20.2, 21.0, 22.0 MMT) except for this past year when it was 28.6 MMT. But this modest increase this past year can easily be explained by the fact that China monopolized Brazil's beans last year. That's not the case this year. The price of beans from Brazil this year is competitive with ours. This year, there is no reason non-Chinese buyers should prefer US beans and the current evidence suggests that they aren't. Yes, we got a bit of boost last fall but recent new sales have been quite modest.
Yes, it is true that we've grown a big crop this past year but big crop or not, you just can't lose 30 MMT of sales without some serious effect on price.