Jon does your weather guy think we will get a window of  dry weather this spring.

We're supposed to see the Sun and WARMER temperatures next week..  Guys have been trying to top dress on the SAND yesterday and they were leaving tracks.. the rest of us have yet to start.. NORMALLY the Nitrogen is on by now..

I looked at my Nov.4 planted wheat yesterday , I am not going to spend anymore money on it. 

Given that Nitrogen is HIGHER and the crop prospects are so poor.. you sentiment is widespread.. although you are not in compliance if you don't put "some" on.. which is what most will do.. just put a maintence at best on.. we still have wheat that is not much more than fuzz.. out of the ground.. I'm afraid.. well we've had 0.20" so far and it's ALREADY ponding.. with 2" more to come.. some creeks are near FLOOD STAGE NOW.. if you walk out into our THAWED heavy ground you sink in halfway on your boots.

.. it's going to be awhile before the ground will support equipment.. but as others note.. spring comes every year.. just later this year.

I'm going to say something (even more) controversial.. The thing which tripped us up last fall was how quickly the window closed.. we've grown used to these Late "global warming" falls.. the non believers in AGW.. "Climate Change" if you will.. to wit I have subscribed.. don't think the amount of Carbon we are pumping into the atmosphere is a big deal.. Afterall crops need CO2.

They/We subscribe more of weather impacts to Solar output and we are due for a Minimum.. well.. what if

BOTH are right?

That is.. our seasons shrink.. due to reduced Solar Output.. but that added Carbon does make our patterns more violent?

hmmm.. shorter seasons.. but more violent weather... sounds like what we are seeing.

That could be..  I was Struck by Bryce Anderson's presentation in Orlando..

"There is no doubt that we are having an impact on our climate.."

When you look at how much Crude Oil is ramping up.. and the growth in demand.. the US is going to surpass Saudi Arabia in production..

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Will-Soon-Export-More-Oil-Liquids-Than-Saudi-Arabia.html


In a pivotal geopolitical shift, the United States will soon export more oil and liquids than Saudi Arabia. This remarkable turnaround is made possible by the continued rise in oil production from US shale plays and the increased oil export capacity from the Gulf Coast.


Well that's the plan.. I wonder how Crude Exporters will fare.. better than US Soybean exporters..???

(Edit add: Notice how they INCLUDE Ethanol and BioDiesel as Other Liquids..  LOL.. in this Crude Oil Resurgence..  give me a break.)

Which is why I think Crude oil is gonna break.. (but that's another post)  The US Ethanol industry is getting the shaft from the oil interest in this administration.. We are the low cost Octane option.. but we can do so much more.. and we should diversify our energy sources.  WHY deplete NOW?

When you consider the amount of aromatics that we are pumping at the gas station.. which DOES CAUSE CANCER!!  and the amount of CO2 being RELEASED from Mining fossil fuels.. it does beg the question..

Why?

It's good that we are not dependent upon the Middle East.. but that doesn't mean we need to cook the planet either..

So yes.. I am charting a new tack.. I'm neither 100% on board with Climate Change nor a Denier.. the data speaks for itself..  but "a realist."  We need to make responsible decisions in real time with the data which we have.

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