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Very little chance for price recovery. Why buy Fall price protection ?
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J P
Posted 3/12/2019 18:54 (#7376237 - in reply to #7376202)
Subject: RE: Very little chance for price recovery. Why buy Fall price protection ?


humblefarmer - 3/12/2019 18:41

Ask people who didn't have it in 2012 how things turned out?


Hi humble,
I totally understand where you are coming from. It depends alot on where you were etc, in relation to the drought of 2012. For instance here, I had 75% RP. I collected a check for about .075 an acre. Yippee. I couldn't even buy groceries for a growing family with it. It was nothing. I had neighbors within a few miles that had record yields because they caught the stray shower...so it just depended on where you were. There is always risk in anything and you have to decide what risk you are willing to accept, just like any other insurance, house, car, liability, etc. For me, the market structure does not support a move anywhere near a 2012 event - and since price knows IMHO, I have decided it's not likely going to happen and I am not going to spend the money. If price starts to develop and show signs of something different, I should see it, and have have plenty of time to do what I gotta do, and it will be way more effective that taking than eating that first 40 bushels, and then really not getting anything out of it. If price went to 12 bucks in corn...and if I grow 39 bushels less than my APH, I would get nothing. And that would not be acceptable to me.

Take care

Edited by J P 3/12/2019 18:55
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