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Soybean export sales plotted, it's been awhile..
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JonSCKs
Posted 3/12/2019 08:50 (#7375258 - in reply to #7374969)
Subject: Given the WASDE assumptions.. for your chart to be true.. S American stocks have to be negative.


The Narrative is that China bought South American Soybeans last fall vs the US and will buy South American Soybeans this spring also..

According to the latest WASDE.. China is STILL going to import 88 mmt's DOWN from last year's 94.1 mmt's

From the latest reported data they had taken or booked 9.4 mmt's from the US.. (as your chart shows)  They bought 0.926 mt's yesterday per USDA and something like.. 0.664 mt's Friday..  So that's 1.6 mmt's not in your numbers.. of the 10 you say we "need."

South America.. with what I still say is 4 mmt's higher on the WASDE vs Private numbers has 93.3 mmt's available minus the 5.61 which Argentina imported from the US and Brazil.. Uruguay etc.. nets them 87.69 mmt's AVAILABLE to export.

Total World trade is 154.2 - 88 from China = 66.2 to Everyone else.. Thus if South America is at 87.69 - (4.. or whatever yet to realize their FINAL yields..) = 66.51 (or 70.51) The REST of the WORLD (and yes Black Sea will be a player someday.. maybe even next year..) but LAST YEAR the REST of the WORLD was only 14.71 = 51.8 ( 55.8 ) plus at cheaper prices.. the Rest of the World probably finds some new demand.. or less supply.

Clear as mud?

No doubt I'm making some assumptions.. Argy imports lower net exports.. even though Argy can RE export.. but it comes Originally from someone else. the US and Brazil mainly..

LONG STORY SHORT..

There was a 2500 truck line on BR-163 

http://soybeanandcorn.com/news/Mar11_19-Trucks-Moving-Again-on-Highway-BR-163-in-Northern-Brazil

After nearly two weeks of blocked traffic on highway BR-163 in northern Brazil, authorities reopened the highway last Thursday. Heavy rains had made an unpaved section of the highway in a hilly area impassable for trucks loaded with grain heading north to ports on the Amazon River.

After spending a week of trying to assist trucks up the hills one-by-one, while at the same time they were trying to repair the roadbed, the National Department of Infrastructure and Transportation (DNIT) decided to close the road completely earlier last week so they could concentrate on bringing in crushed rock to stabilize the roadbed.

In the meantime, at least 2,500 trucks had been stopped for a week or more in a very sparsely populated area without basic necessities such as food, water, and other services. Local authorities and volunteer residents tried to meet the needs of the stranded truck drivers, but it has woefully inadequate. The losses for the truck drivers and their companies are going to be very high. The trucks are covered by tarpaulins and some truckers have even indicated that the wet weather may have caused some of their soybeans to deteriorate.

There were actually more than 2,500 stranded trucks because authorities closed north bound traffic at the border between Mato Grosso and Para so that the traffic jam would not get longer. So there were probably thousands of additional trucks waiting in Mato Grosso to head north. At this time of the year, there are approximately 1,000 grain trucks per day heading north on BR-163 to ports on the Amazon River.

There were reports late last week that some of the grain terminals on the Amazon River would run out of soybeans as of last Friday. Fortunately for them, the highway was reopened last Thursday and the truck traffic heading north has returned to its normal flow. Port officials indicated that it will probably take 1-2 weeks before everything returns to normal. They estimate that approximately 35,000 tons of soybeans arrive per day at the port of Miritituba.

Yes they have made improvements to their terminals... but they STLL have to GET IT THERE!!  and it's taking LONGER.. So the days when ALL the Soybean Sales came from the US in the FALL then ALL the Sales come from South America in the SPRING are over...  WORLD DEMAND has GROWN so that the INFRASTRUCTURE from BOTH Hemispheres must work to deliver..  RIGHT NOW the US has restrictions on the Mississippi river due to Flooding.. (any one looked at the forecast?)

So we are transitioning to a new normal.. your flattening curve is going to become more upward sloping LATER in the season.

Brazil is AHEAD of Schedule on harvest.. which means they bagged MORE in the FIELD..

http://soybeanandcorn.com/news/Mar12_19-20189-Brazil-Soybeans-57-Harvested

The Brazilian soybean harvest is approximately 57% complete compared to 48% last year and 47% for the 5-year average. The Brazilian soybean harvest started off very fast this year and it was running at a record fast pace, but it has slowed down the last three weeks due to wet weather. This represents an advance of only 5% for the week.

Approximately 40% of the soybeans are still in the field and Brazilian farmers are always concerned about wet weather during harvest and the potential impact on soybean seed quality. In fact, there are isolated reports coming in of poor seed quality and even some soybeans sprouting in the pods. The last areas to be harvested are Rio Grande do Sul and northeastern Brazil.


The Early planted stuff is what burned up.. now they are fighting rains.. and the roads.. but the dry season is coming.. they will get it however, it will come LATER.. furthermore, why sell now?  Wait for a bounce.. Lower US plantings.. Prevented Plantings etc..

THAT is my point.





Edited by JonSCKs 3/12/2019 09:18
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