Posted 3/11/2019 19:19 (#7374240 - in reply to #7374202) Subject: RE: My Issue
South Central Iowa
I speak only for my local area. That’s better than the fringe but far less robust than the prime belt.
At $3.00 board, it’s $2.50 cash in my area. Inputs can and will drop another ~$50 an acre and people here will mine the soil again. I could see the at-cost of putting corn in the ground fall to $230-$280 depending on who you are; it’s generally $280-$400 around here right now, but superfluousness can come off the top end in a hurry. One presumes yields will be good everywhere to drop us to $3 on the board, so locally 180-200bpa corn; with input drops and mining, that still leaves $170-$270 for land depending on the operator. That $235 gross rent check will keep coming to the landlord. For the prime lands with 220-250 bpa corn and $2.75 cash and $50-$80 higher inputs; they would have $245-$408 available for land, so that $300-$350 cash rent goes no where.
Some people will lose money for a bit, but many others will find a way to sustain even if it isn’t agronomically correct. We would have to go below $3 for a few years to actually cause damage.... except the poor sods who have a drought or other issue when no one else does.