EC Nebraska | Conan the Farmer - 2/15/2019 22:07
EXTENDED DOOM:
Big question is who can't take that real price when basis is included. The fringe areas will be out at those prices. It costs them 50-80c a bushel just to get it anywhere useful; so $2.70 becomes $1.70 on 140 bushel corn for $238 an acre revenue. Beans could be 40 bpa at $5.50 cash for $220. There are 15-30 million acres of the plains that will go fallow.
LDP's come into play at those levels. You could have 50 cent harvest LDP's on corn at those levels.
I grew a lot of 100-120 bushel corn for $1.70 plus 20 cent LDP back in the early 00's. $90/acre cash rent was high back then.
Probably there are other crops that will compete well with $2.10 corn, so corn/bean acres will drop. But I wouldn't count on very many acres going fallow as long as the FSA will buy corn at $2.10.
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2019 acrerage ?
