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Bengal Stripes
Posted 2/14/2019 12:07 (#7320307 - in reply to #7320300)
Subject: RE: Or China shaking the trees in front of a settlement/purchase..



JonSCKs - 2/14/2019 12:01

The realization that soybean demand is well overstated. See below.

Again the world numbers DO NOT ADD UP..

China did not import 20 mmt's of US Soybeans..

So far the WASDE has cut their demand by 6.1 mmt's with possibly more to go..
Flip side the WASDE ESTIMATES also have South American production OVERSTATED by 5+ mmt's

Someone is going to need to fill what's left of that 20 mmt hole..

be that the rest of the world.. who now must come to the US vs Brazil's beans... going to China.. and source THOSE beans from US.. OR China directly.

"it has to come from somewhere.."



Demand will back fill from non traditional buyers that isn’t questioned but your numbers are being conjured up to back your thesis. The US will likely see exports of around 1.70 Bbu and total SA production will be in excess of 182 MMT. That is not a small figure in a world where demand is contracting.
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