Brazil's 2018/19 soybean crop estimate was cut by almost 4.5 million tonnes, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday, as it cited unfavourable climate conditions in key producing states. AgRural now predicts Brazil's output at 112.5 million tonnes this season, down from a forecast 116.9 million tonnes last month, due to hot and dry conditions in soybean fields. Negotiators from the United States and China, the world's top soybean buyer, are trying to hammer out a trade deal before a March 1 deadline, when U.S. tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports are scheduled to increase to 25 percent from 10 percent.
It looks unlikely that South America will be able to match it's previous record Soybean crop of 183.15 mmt's from two year's ago.. Holding other countries the same and plugging the 112.5 number into the February WASDE estimates would take the South American Crop down to 178.98 mmt's over 4 mmt's below the record crop of 2016/2017 and reducing supplies available to be exported.
It would seem that the US is in a position to pick up export sales from the lost production. Are we going to see a STRONG 2nd half of the Year Counter Seasonal Export program?
China took 20+ mmt's less from the US in the First half.. it has to come from somewhere..