Posted 2/11/2019 16:49 (#7314178) Subject: Advice on HTA
Booked my first HTA last fall after reading a few posts on here. I like the way it's working out so far, but now I'm questioning when I should actually deliver. I think I've made a couple mistakes by contacting through a co-op and rolling contract to contact and not straight to July. The co-op usually has the best basis in the area or is within a few cents so I'm not that concerned with that mistake. However, rolling contact to contract, the spread has started shrinking (which someone said it always does, and here we are) and now I'm wondering when I should actually deliver. So far the basis keeps shrinking each month, usually starting -.10 to -.13 and ends up even to +.05. Currently, I'm sitting at 4.24 with a +.06 basis, the spread to July is 15.5 cents, but the July basis is -.22. Do I roll to July to preserve the spread that is left, but leave the basis open hoping it weakens like it has been (maybe the merch guys can shed some light?), or deliver now, give up the spread, but take the better basis since as it sits now I'd be ~13 cents ahead? We were in the drought area of MO so I'm thinking the basis should continue to strengthen each month, but don't want to reach a basis cliff I don't see coming.