Posted 2/11/2019 21:40 (#7314997 - in reply to #7314112) Subject: RE: Let's not guess.
The first round of China sales was 4.2 MMT, the second round just last week, wasn't 5 MMT but 3.8 MMT, for a total of 8 MMT not the 9 or 10 being talked about. There is no reason to believe that there has been any other unknown purchases by China because China is using these purchases as deal sweeteners.
Meanwhile, what have are Non-China export sales and actual exports been?
Well, we got just little more information today, as the export data thru 12-27-18 has been posted.
Below are two charts showing the weekly sales and weekly exports for non-china countries since the '15/'16 market year. You can see that in '15/'16 & '16/'17 market years, both exports sales and exports to non-China countries were generally higher in the first two quarters and declined during the last two quarters. Last year, '17/'18 is characterized by sustained sales in the final quarter which we already know about. What is interesting is neither sales nor exports are uniform, but rather highly volatile, varying up & down weekly over the any given period.
The first quarter of the '18/'19 market year has been characterized by very substantially higher, both sales and exports to Non-China countries, as we expected given the low price and the lack of South American beans.
The question then becomes, will this higher level be maintained in the coming weeks and months? We have one clue that's not so encouraging. If you look at Non-China exports for the past month they are 694K, 587K, 563K, & 576K MT These numbers are very substantially lower than the 1.2 to 1.6 MMT we've seen the past three months. If this continues, it will put the weekly Non-China exports right back into the same range as the previous two years.