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World Ag Supply/Demand ESTIMATE numbers.
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Posted 2/10/2019 20:28 (#7312048 - in reply to #7309455)
Subject: Shell game or legit? Show me..

I've been busier this weekend than I anticipated.. not as much time to dig into the numbers.. so I threw them up.. I figured someone would comment on it.

I know from below.. that The US Sold China 36.6 mmt's in 16/17.. and 27.8 mmt's last year.. so far.. we've sold 4.29 mmt's through 12/27/18 + the 3.80 mmt's announced out of the 5 mmt's announced in the Oval Office last week.  Through 12/27 there are 4.88 mmt's sold to unknown.. usually a decent chunk of that would be China..

Through 12/28/17 we had sold 24'ish mmt's.. thus the US was down 20'ish mmt's.. However, we sold about 10 mmt's MORE to others.. thus we were "only" down around 10 mmt's... with known through 12/27 + announced last week = 35.25 on our way.. according to the latest WASDE to.. 51.71 or 16.46 mmt' go.. this does NOT include sales made in January when the Gov't has been shut down.. plus going forward the next 6.5 months.

The Perception is that China can skip buying.. 20..28.. 37 mmt's from the US while Buying it FROM South America..

Given that China imports.. around 93.. 94 mmt's  now down to 88.. THAT's alot.. Especially when the "Major Exporters" in South America including:

Brazil now at 117 mmt's vs 122 down 5.0
Argentina at 55 mmt's vs 55.5 down 0.5
Paraguay at 9.5 mmt's vs 9.8 mmt's down 0.3
and Uruguay at 1.98 mmt's vs 2.5 mmt's down 0.52

On this LAST February WASDE they LOWERED "Major Exporters" from South America 6.32 mmt's to 183.48 mmt's.. With Many forecasters LOWER than the 117 mmt's penciled in for Brazil.. FC Stone at 112.2.. others at 107.. 108.. 101.. 115.. ??
Some have an expectation that Argy could be raised upwards to 58 to 60.. so somewhat offsetting but the WASDE lowered this month..  ??

Furthermore with domestic demand Growing in South America.. 96.. 93.6.. 98.5 mmt's... the only way that balances is if South America IMPORTS.. from 1.98 mmt's to 5.24.. to 5.61 mmt's now.

Thus China skips the US... goes to S/Am.. who buys in inventory from the US...  ???

So is this just one giant Shell game?

Plus.. IF China basically cleans out South America.. where do THOSE customers go?

.. the US.

So again.. back to the Shell game.

Just my opinion.. they could just make a deal and buy it out of the US PNW..

Either way.. it would appear that the US will supply soybeans for the rest of the year.. vs the All or nothing in the Fall that we've seen thus far..

Edited by JonSCKs 2/10/2019 20:41
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