Posted 2/7/2019 19:15 (#7304624 - in reply to #7304551) Subject: RE: The numbers for wheat will be bearish tomorrow.
South central kansas
This from Tregg Cronin, IMO, from his morning commentary explains some of the price pressure in wheat. Basis bids at the gulf were down .13 cents today on HRWW. Edit: morning commentary Wednesday 2-6-2019
"Speaking of wheat, difficult to find a more impressive move in grains than that in calendar spreads. The WH/WK rallied to -0.75c yesterday, the highest trade since September of 2017. Overnight, the KWH/KWK rallied to -4.75c, the strongest trade since August and tying the strongest levels since March 2017. We’ve got a good old-fashioned squeeze going on as basis trades at the Gulf have been strong and a majority of the open interest remains in the March contract. Futures rallying does little for hedged commercial inventories who own 75-80% of the winter wheat crop. Basis has already rallied to levels which have made US wheat somewhat uncompetitive on the global stage. That leaves spreads to rally and disincentivize carrying wheat. The cash carry had already been removed in SRW and with the lack of carry in HRW, that cash carry has also been removed. At these sort of carries, we should see basis start to weaken as some hedged length gets thrown at the market. Until basis breaks, however, do not want to be short wheat futures, especially considering spreads inverting might be what is needed to really pry hedged bushels loose. Never underestimate wheat’s ability to extract pain."