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EC SoDak | Most businesses do forecasting, we can as well. I use the average of the last 3-5 crops of each (corn and beans). That gives you a number to go on for forecasting purposes. We do this for buying ground, renting ground, fertilizing, seeding rates, etc so it’s not a crazy concept IMO. If you hedge ahead, you should have an idea of your typical yield ranges and then hedge a percentage of that number.
For instance
For examples sake, let’s say my average the last 4 corn crops is 200, but I know my typical range is 180-220, I’d be inclined to hedge 80% of 180 as a plan. If the season is going well, I might go 80% of 200 and then pull the trigger more as more variables become known if the price is still right. You just have to keep your plan somewhat liquid to allow for changes.
Edited by SoDak Farms 2/6/2019 12:17
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