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Marketing Help
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JD70
Posted 2/6/2019 09:02 (#7300724 - in reply to #7300653)
Subject: RE: Marketing Help


Ok that's great now you need to understand the market does not care what your breakeven are , but you need to understand them.

Do you understand market carry and seasonals? These will be the easiest market charts to learn and understand.

Now take you probable production and decide it into 6 equal portions. Then the 1st portion should be sold anytime PRICE exceeds COP even if that is 2 yrs before you plant. Then get out your seasonal chart and Mark down 3 or 4 areas of seasonal strength and make sure you are looking for prices above your 1st sale to move up your sales totals.

Your seasonal charts will more than likely show PRICE strength in time frames when the crop is the most venerable to production risk
IE a weather scare so get comfortable with selling fear because the market will pay for that fear. One should hope to have 5 of the 6 portions sold before that fear season ends in corn that would generally be end of July and beans it would be near mid Aug.

As for basis and carry that's a storage issue and cash flow issue if you have storage wait till harvest lows to sell the carry by rolling HTAs out as carry allows. Basis is a little dependent on storage if you have NO storage then it is generally better to set basis before harvest vs at harvest delivery under normal US wide production..

You now have a market plan view from the peanut gallery
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