AgTalk Home
AgTalk Home
Search Forums | Classifieds (2) | Skins | Language
You are logged in as a guest. ( logon | register )

Can February 8th reports be bullish?
View previous thread :: View next thread
   Forums List -> Market TalkMessage format
 
IN555
Posted 2/3/2019 18:21 (#7294815 - in reply to #7294778)
Subject: RE: Can February 8th reports be bullish?


NW Indiana
Well a couple things JC. First off we were staring at a crop of 53 bu/ac(some as high as 55) last fall without china in the market and really it didn't look like things were going well. Many beating the drum of a carryout of over 1 billion, some well over a billion. The thoughts Brazil/Argentina/Paraguay would grow a crop north of 185mmt. All of that and we printed a low of 8.12. 2009 the financial world was collapsing and we printed 7.96. Basically imo I think it is clear were the basement floor is.

Fast forward to looking at trade negotiations that appear to be going well, our yield likely under 52, imo we have seen the high carryout number printed, SA probably looking closer to 175-178. So in turn I think we are near fair value currently. So going forward to get me bullish I believe we see a trade deal that really is huge for US ag. We know china is wanting to ramp up ethanol and maybe that is the 8mmt corn talk to china. I've said all along I think Brazil turns out to be the loser in the whole deal. We buy a ton of stuff from china, they buy way more beans from Brazil than us so it seems like an easy way for them to negotiate. All of this said I think the risk/reward is to the upside. Like you pointed out I sold last year at this time and got beat up on here like a red headed step child, I have no problem taking a contrarian opinion. Lastly and craziest of all, my gut tells to wait. I'll go on a limb and predict we make a run at 4.50 corn sometime either on a weather scare or late season and our best pricing opportunity for 2019 beans very well might be in December.

Edited by IN555 2/3/2019 18:24
Top of the page Bottom of the page


Jump to forum :
Search this forum
Printer friendly version
E-mail a link to this thread

(Delete cookies)