You may be on to something about world supplies being less than advertised, but noone really knows how much is in China. We also dont know for sure how their asf situation is going to play out. 

Fair enough..

for the Record the WASDE (if it's right?) has China Beginning stocks sept 1st at 23.54 mmt's.. No doubt they could "coast" for awhile.. coupled with a 16 mmt crop vs.. 109.6 mmt domestic demand.

ASR is going to reduce Chinese demand by..??
Dryness is going to reduce Brazils crop by.. ??