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| The Dec 18 wasde that you refer to gives an estimation of stocks on hand at the end of the US marketing year which is AUGUST 31, 2019
The reason ARGY is importing beans from us now is because of a very poor finish to their crop LAST YEAR .
(37mmt vs a mid 50mmt crop in a 'normal' year)
They are importing beans now to keep their crush plants operating, as they have commitments to export beanmeal.
They will start their harvest in March with shorter season beans and will get done in May with second crop beans.
ON AUGUST 31, 2019, they will have most of their crop still in storage, because of the recently completed harvest. It is not what their ending stocks is, but how much inventory they have on AUGUST 31, 2019.
They are projected to have a mid 50mmt crop again this year (which can certainly change as their critical weather timeframe is now upon us), but if they do come through with a 50s type number, in the next marketing cycle they will not have a reason to continue importing beans from us. | |
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115 mmt's of Soybean Carryout.. 36% in Argentina.. 41.3 mmt's
