Well it's kind of second hand.. but FC Stone.. (if true..) is pretty rep-able to me.. So if they are saying 112 (??) seems pretty market relevant to me.

Someone above mentioned a 100 mmt carry out.. and that's true.. with the US at a crop size of 125 (??) and Brazil at 122 (??)

I guess next weeks WASDE updates are gonna be a little more interesting..  I DOUBT that they will go to 112.. even if we end up there.. but Given that it's February.. aka Late July/August for our weather scares.. and the crop doesn't appear to be finishing "well" (??)  

If nationwide.. they (Brazil) expected.. say 60 bu yields.. (for the sake of argument..) to yield 122.. 10 less would be..112/122 = 0.92

Thus 0.92 x (whatever..) say 60 would be 55 or Down 5 bushels across the WHOLE crop.. not insignificant.. is that enough to be a "drought?"

idk.. but I could see the "top end" knocked off.. on hot and dry during grain fill..  I guess we'll find out soon enough.

chow.

Next week's reports are getting more interesting.. How much has China bought..?? South American Crop..?? US Wheat seedings..??  Stocks reports..?? etc.