Given the Asian Swine Flu et all and trade battles.. China is probably not going to hit the Last WASDE estimate of 90 mmt's of Soybean imports down from the previous year's 94.13.
The US per data reported up till the end of the year was down about 17 mmt's to China vs Last year..
94.13 - 90 = -4.13.. the US is down 17.. which means 13 mmt's are missing... either China is drawing down stocks.. using that much less.. or getting it from someone else..
Argentina had a 17 mmt smaller crop last year.. and was importing soybeans from the US.. it's doubtful that it came from them as their exports were also down 5 mmt's..
Brazil was up 13 mmt's for the year.. but by October.. had similar stocks as a year ago.. at the start of the US shipping season.. if THEY shipped 13 mmt's then.. they are on fumes now.. ??
With a smaller 2019 crop coming in...
it doesn't add up. |