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partimer
Posted 1/22/2019 08:47 (#7263392 - in reply to #7263218)
Subject: RE: Just to be clear


Northwest Iowa
Some really good observations made in this thread. The fundamentalist purists have more of the "random walk" view in that what happens in the marketplace is just a reaction to news. I contend that the "news" we hear is old and has been factored by those that need and can afford to buy the news when it is pertinent. If one really hates charts, likely they have not really tried to disprove that they work- sorry generalizations here. Many years ago I tried to disprove technicals but could not so I am a tech guy. If all that a farmer uses a chart for is to find trends and see old areas that stopped a market(support and resistance), that is quite a bit of value right there. A record of history, if you will. Another thought that goes through my (jumbled!) mind is that maybe we should look at straight-forward, actions for our cash markets and to keep our banker comfortable. I'm thinking of the "carry" in the cash market we have in my area right now. Maybe it is best to take that guarantee and lock up a forward cash sale for grain stored in bins and then "speculate" with options or futures positions. Just thinking out loud here. I really appreciate input by blu, JP, frytown, Nodak, David and Centuryfarm. Others as well but those leap out at me. To start out, trend lines are good. I like the slow stochastics for oscilators. I know the very simplest Andrews (often referred to as forks here) but that isn't what I am comfortable with. Cycles and seasonals are important, especially for cash marketing. I am comfortable with Elliot Wave and there are volumes of different studies within WD Gann's material. Japanese Candlestick is another venue that is very good but again, like learning another language. Markets tend to be quiet during the short days of winter. As an old trader told me years ago, "Short days, short markets", but I am afraid the lack of posting by techies is because of the attacks they must endure when they do.
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