So after I posted this thread yesterday I talked to a neighbor agronomist who consults in the area..

In order to get ahold of this reduced acreage you have 

a) reported prevented planted acres.. Whole fields or they must be mapped out at least 20 acres or 20% (for example the picture above would qualify.)  I know of one outfit which came up with 500 acres of "planted fields" with prevented planting holes in them.. again like the field above.  Others simply skipped it.  On our farm we skipped 3 quarters and 2 pivots where we planted the corners..  I did not "part out" any of our attempted to plant fields.

b) Some as noted above did not file prevented plantings.. "I would have to take a yield hit to my aph"  "It would kick me out of spring insurance."  "I wasn't aware that I could" etc..

c) even in the attempted to plant and reported as planted.. there will be mudholes.. from nil to 20% or more.. Most years we can get these in and.. even though might have to come back later.. harvested.  What this would be on my farm..??  5..7.. 10%..??  One field.. 12%.. 15%..??  Idk..  These low area's are where the yields USUALLY come from.. the better dirt etc..  So "even if" we have moisture.. and the crop does well.. but you only harvest on 88%.. say 50 bu wheat becomes 44 bu average.

For the above.. and I think our area will be higher than 18% PP.. we think HARVESTED acreage will be down around 30% to 40%.. what yields do vs last year..??  Given the spike in fertilizer prices.. and it's still wet.. not much fertility has gone on yet.. and in some cases.. the crops still have to emerge.

With the winds yesterday and coming.. some of this small wheat is at risk of blowing out.

It's hard to imagine coming up with 80% of the bushels which we harvested on last year's poor yielding crop here.. even if yields are better.. and can they be.. when some fields haven't even come up yet?

I still got 2 fields which may get destroyed if conditions are not right going forward..

Kansas at 250 million or less.. very possible.