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| You're definitely on the right track. To my eyes, the failure to take out the high on the 7th (or 8th really?) means we quickly go from an uptrending channel to creating a wedge, which was confirmed by still putting in a higher this week. I loaded up on puts near the close today because next week could get ugly......... "buy the rumor, sell the fact." when the fundamental story (new export business guarantees from China) meets the technical story (wedge), the action can be violent. Last wedge we broke out of was in December and we broke out higher. Will that happen again? Or will we go lower? Place your bets.
If you're pricing physical, the lower low followed by the last couple days should scream WHEN GIVEN A GIFT, MANAGE YOUR RISK. | |
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An idea!
