| Reports this morning are that the forecasted rains were light and it's back to more heat for next week.
http://soybeanandcorn.com/news/Jan15_19-Brazil-Soybeans-Harvest-Underway-Early-Yields-Disappoints
$7.25 for Soybeans on top of lower expected yields... ouch. Some early yields in Parana at 20 bu vs 50 normal.. 44 bu in Mato Grosso do Sul vs 53 last year.. etc. Granted it's early and the Early planted Early program is getting zinged by the weather.
Is this a foreshadowing of what's to come?
Again here are my projections summarized from the other day for the Main Players.. Brazil, China and the US
Brazil's Crop size is falling.. China is plagued by Swine Fever.. reducing demand.. and we still do not know what we raised in the US for the 2018 crop as the Gov't is shutdown.
I'm on record with my guesses below.. | | | | | | | | | | | | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Crush | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks | Brazil | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2016/17 | 18.76 | 114.6 | 0.25 | 40.41 | 43.66 | 63.14 | 26.81 | 2017/18 Est. | 26.81 | 120.3 | 0.18 | 44.5 | 45.94 | 76.2 | 25.15 | 2018/19 Proj. | 25.15 | 122 | 0.2 | 42.7 | 45 | 81 | 21.35 | Jon SCKs | | 25.15 | 115 | 0.2 | 42.7 | 45 | 71 | | 24.35 | | | | -7 | | | | -10 | | 3 | China | | | | | | | | | | 2016/17 | 17.14 | 13.64 | 93.5 | 88 | 103.5 | 0.11 | 20.66 | 2017/18 Est. | 20.66 | 15.2 | 94.13 | 90 | 106.3 | 0.15 | 23.54 | 2018/19 Proj. | 23.54 | 16 | 90 | 92.5 | 109.6 | 0.1 | 19.84 | Jon SCKs | | 23.54 | 16 | 86.29 | 90 | 107 | 0.1 | | 18.73 | | | | | -3.71 | -2.5 | -2.6 | | | -1.11 | | | | | | | | | | | US | | | | | | | | | | 2016/17 | 5.35 | 116.92 | 0.61 | 51.74 | 55.71 | 58.96 | 8.21 | 2017/18 Est. | 8.21 | 120.04 | 0.59 | 55.93 | 58.97 | 57.95 | 11.92 | 2018/19 Proj. | 11.92 | 125.18 | 0.68 | 56.61 | 60.08 | 51.71 | 26 | Jon SCKs | | 11.92 | 121.47 | 0.68 | 56.61 | 60.08 | 58 | | 15.99 | | | | -3.71 | | | | 6.29 | | -10.01 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |