Right now, we have some pretty big unknowns, but at some point they will be stop being unknowns and "we" will all agree on some numbers. First, Soybean yield out of S. America (specifically Brazil) seems to be going down. We mostly agree it is going down, but just not sure how much. We will know by a certain date, say, sometime in March, what those yields are (ie down 5% or down 20% year-over-year).
Two more big unknowns are USDA statistics, currently not being shared due to govt. shutdown, and the US-China trade negotiations. Both of these things will be resolved by mid-March. (okay, maybe not, but pretty good odds govt. is open and the trade negotiations have mostly some sort of outcome, positive or negative)
What STRATEGIES are folks using, if any, to help with marketing. Not curious what your perspectives are on any of these three outcomes, but what you are doing with your farm decisions, purchases, marketing, etc. to kind of mark time until we have a better understanding of these three outcomes.
I am going back to a lot of corn-on-corn, (that is the plan - no AA or Liquid N bought yet), and sold 95% of my 2018 beans, when I usually hold about 25% in the bin and sell in July. Basically, I am "out" of the soybean market - sold majority of last year's crop, and have little intention of growing many beans in 2019. In fact, I put a field to winter wheat as a cover crop, and thinking about harvesting it rather than planing beans.
Last year, I was 50% beans, 30% corn and 20% seed corn. This year, likely 20% seed corn, 35% corn, and 10% wheat (maybe, never done it before, and if beans come back in price, will be easy to plant into the wheat as cover crop), and 10% beans, and 25% corn on corn.
Mostly I am curious what folks are doing marketing wise, but thought I would share what I have done. I have done really well with both beans and corn yield wise in rotation, and heard a lot of horror stories about corn on corn yields last year, but I have little to no faith in bean market at this time.