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Ethanol update.
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JonSCKs
Posted 1/10/2019 07:03 (#7234112 - in reply to #7234054)
Subject: US Crude Oil Production remains record high.


The US Crude Oil pumping rate remains at a RECORD for the third straight month.. pumping 2.21 million bbls per day over a year ago.. 11.7 million bbls per day vs 9.5 last year..

Weekly U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels per Day)
 
Year-MonthWeek 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5
End DateValueEnd DateValueEnd DateValueEnd DateValueEnd DateValue

 

  2018-Jan01/05 9,492   01/12 9,750   01/19 9,878   01/26 9,919       
  2018-Feb02/02 10,251   02/09 10,271   02/16 10,270   02/23 10,283       
  2018-Mar03/02 10,369   03/09 10,381   03/16 10,407   03/23 10,433   03/30 10,460   
  2018-Apr04/06 10,525   04/13 10,540   04/20 10,586   04/27 10,619       
  2018-May05/04 10,703   05/11 10,723   05/18 10,725   05/25 10,769       
  2018-Jun06/01 10,800   06/08 10,900   06/15 10,900   06/22 10,900   06/29 10,900   
  2018-Jul07/06 10,900   07/13 11,000   07/20 11,000   07/27 10,900       
  2018-Aug08/03 10,800   08/10 10,900   08/17 11,000   08/24 11,000   08/31 11,000   
  2018-Sep09/07 10,900   09/14 11,000   09/21 11,100   09/28 11,100       
  2018-Oct10/05 11,200   10/12 10,900   10/19 10,900   10/26 11,200       
  2018-Nov11/02 11,600   11/09 11,700   11/16 11,700   11/23 11,700   11/30 11,700   
  2018-Dec12/07 11,600   12/14 11,600   12/21 11,700   12/28 11,700       
 
  2019-Jan01/04 11,700                   


Which is leading to a build in US Crude Oil stocks..

Weekly U.S. Ending Stocks excluding SPR of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels)
 
Year-MonthWeek 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5
End DateValueEnd DateValueEnd DateValueEnd DateValueEnd DateValue

 

  2018-Jan01/05 419,515   01/12 412,654   01/19 411,583   01/26 418,359       
  2018-Feb02/02 420,254   02/09 422,095   02/16 420,479   02/23 423,498       
  2018-Mar03/02 425,906   03/09 430,928   03/16 428,306   03/23 429,949   03/30 425,332   
  2018-Apr04/06 428,638   04/13 427,567   04/20 429,737   04/27 435,955       
  2018-May05/04 433,758   05/11 432,354   05/18 438,132   05/25 434,512       
  2018-Jun06/01 436,584   06/08 432,441   06/15 426,527   06/22 416,636   06/29 417,881   
  2018-Jul07/06 405,248   07/13 411,084   07/20 404,937   07/27 408,740       
  2018-Aug08/03 407,389   08/10 414,194   08/17 408,358   08/24 405,792   08/31 401,490   
  2018-Sep09/07 396,194   09/14 394,137   09/21 395,989   09/28 403,964       
  2018-Oct10/05 409,951   10/12 416,441   10/19 422,787   10/26 426,004       
  2018-Nov11/02 431,787   11/09 442,057   11/16 446,908   11/23 450,485   11/30 443,162   
  2018-Dec12/07 441,954   12/14 441,457   12/21 441,411   12/28 441,418       
 
  2019-Jan01/04 439,738   

It's really puzzling how 23.2 myn bbls of ethanol are "burdensome" while 439.7 myn bbls of Crude are reported and the market bounces over $2 a bbls...?!?

Sure seems to be a disconnect...

Weekly U.S. Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline (Thousand Barrels)
 
Year-MonthWeek 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5
End DateValueEnd DateValueEnd DateValueEnd DateValueEnd DateValue
 2018-Jan01/05 237,322   01/12 240,942   01/19 244,040   01/26 242,060       
  2018-Feb02/02 245,474   02/09 249,073   02/16 249,334   02/23 251,817       
  2018-Mar03/02 251,029   03/09 244,758   03/16 243,065   03/23 239,593   03/30 238,477   
  2018-Apr04/06 238,935   04/13 235,967   04/20 236,807   04/27 237,978       
  2018-May05/04 235,804   05/11 232,014   05/18 233,897   05/25 234,431       
  2018-Jun06/01 239,034   06/08 236,763   06/15 240,040   06/22 241,196   06/29 239,691   
  2018-Jul07/06 238,997   07/13 235,832   07/20 233,504   07/27 230,968       
  2018-Aug08/03 233,868   08/10 233,128   08/17 234,328   08/24 232,774   08/31 234,619   
  2018-Sep09/07 235,869   09/14 234,150   09/21 235,680   09/28 235,221       
  2018-Oct10/05 236,172   10/12 234,156   10/19 229,330   10/26 226,169       
  2018-Nov11/02 228,021   11/09 226,610   11/16 225,315   11/23 224,551   11/30 226,250   
  2018-Dec12/07 228,337   12/14 230,103   12/21 233,106   12/28 239,996       
 
  2019-Jan01/04 248,062   
Weekly U.S. Ending Stocks of Fuel Ethanol (Thousand Barrels)
 
Year-MonthWeek 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5
End DateValueEnd DateValueEnd DateValueEnd DateValueEnd DateValue
  2018-Jan01/05 22,719   01/12 22,743   01/19 23,800   01/26 23,045       
  2018-Feb02/02 23,489   02/09 22,885   02/16 22,753   02/23 22,979       
  2018-Mar03/02 23,144   03/09 24,281   03/16 23,758   03/23 22,790   03/30 22,425   
  2018-Apr04/06 21,846   04/13 21,344   04/20 21,701   04/27 22,142       
  2018-May05/04 21,964   05/11 21,505   05/18 22,129   05/25 21,263       
  2018-Jun06/01 21,897   06/08 22,174   06/15 21,647   06/22 21,674   06/29 21,975   
  2018-Jul07/06 22,393   07/13 21,768   07/20 21,653   07/27 21,967       
  2018-Aug08/03 22,923   08/10 23,017   08/17 23,259   08/24 23,061   08/31 22,703   
  2018-Sep09/07 22,894   09/14 22,746   09/21 22,629   09/28 23,445       
  2018-Oct10/05 24,021   10/12 24,130   10/19 23,897   10/26 22,746       
  2018-Nov11/02 23,150   11/09 23,514   11/16 22,791   11/23 22,930   11/30 23,030   
  2018-Dec12/07 22,890   12/14 23,873   12/21 23,133   12/28 23,162       
 
  2019-Jan01/04 23,254                   


Especially given that Ethanol exports have been pretty robust.. and upward sloping..

U.S. Exports of Fuel Ethanol (Thousand Barrels)
 

 

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
  20103245191,1539734143876037079298349301,717
  20111,3641,4252,0032,8651,7431,6043,0361,2462,5252,8953,6344,117
  20121,8191,7851,9921,7751,3971,4101,5191,2061,1911,2849651,313
  20131,5181,0171,3129679527968301,1821,2991,2062,1341,525
  20142,0911,5172,0591,6591,2651,3781,5991,2921,3531,9492,1141,872
 
  20151,6401,6622,0571,7611,4971,4991,7161,2721,4921,7921,4271,995
  20162,2972,0272,6142,9221,6281,2951,9552,1792,3462,9463,0742,583
  20172,8443,6053,0232,1152,8622,2972,8222,2852,0112,4882,5654,175
  20182,1045,2985,1223,8662,2803,6092,4872,9422,1414,178  


Edited by JonSCKs 1/10/2019 07:09
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