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Ethanol update.
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JonSCKs
Posted 1/10/2019 06:46 (#7234054)
Subject: Ethanol update.


Seasonally all things energy slows down over the holidays with 2018/19 no different,

Ethanol production and blended both paused this past week but were Higher than a year ago's numbers.  Margins are very tight and speculation is that some plants are slowing down until market conditions improve.

Production at 1,000 k bbls per day was down again during the holidays but up vs Last year's 996 k bbls per day. The Crop year to date grind is down 0.7%

Domestic Blended is the same story.. 815 k bbls per day vs 795 last year while YoY is up very slightly at 0.4%

Ethanol stocks are up 1.2 million bbls or 7%

Implied Exports were decently good also at 1.2 million bbls.  This number has been tracking lower than last year's YoY though down 2.6% even though November's implied number of 4.896 million would be pretty stout.  Last year we ramped up to pretty decent numbers through February and March so it's possible that would be in the works again.

Total disappearance is flat with a year ago.  We NEED E-15 approval NOW!!

While gasoline supplied is down slightly at 1.1% lower.. the ethanol blend rate is up slightly at an average of 9.98% per this data set up 1.5%

Ho Hum if you will and not much to be gleaned from the holiday slowdowns... The industry is under pressure though from Pruitt's waivers and rumors of shutdown's..  Some plants are not contracting out very far.. in case they choose to shut in.. but then come in to cover nearby needs..  So it's making planning difficult.  It think this is why you are seeing "bumpy air" in bids.  The summer driving season is coming.. and production should be ramping up for that in a couple of months.

The Inverse between Ethanol and Crude Oil prices appears to be back.. Crude was higher.. Ethanol lower.. Probably on the assumption that higher gasoline prices will slow ethanol demand.  Hence higher blends are needed to bypass more of this effect..  Consumers need access to higher blends of ethanol at the pump.

          Computed          
 Weekly Production      number to balanceComputedActualTotal Weekly bu  Weekly US  
Week Blenders InputImportsStocksCapacityResidual and exportsExportsExportsEthanolGrindMonthlyYearSupplied Finished 
 Ethanol k bbls/dayk bbls /dayk bbls /day k bbls k bbls k bbls /dayk bblsMonthlyEIAdemand  myn buMotor Gasoline 
        37,936       2.85conversion Ethanol as % of
                      
9/7/20181020 918 0 22,89460% 74.7 523  992.7105,221  96499.51% 
9/14/20181051 928 0 22,74660% 144.1 1009  1072.1108,419  95349.73% 
9/21/20181036 901 0 22,62960% 151.7 1062  1052.7106,872  898710.03% 
9/28/20181015 917 0 23,44562% -18.6 -13024642141898.4104,705  910210.07% 
10/5/20181040 913 71 24,02163% 115.7 810  1028.7107,284  907810.06% 
10/12/20181011 933 0 24,13064% 62.4 437  995.4104,293  918210.16% 
10/19/20181024 940 15 23,89763% 132.3 926  1072.3105,634  932410.08% 
10/26/20181059 936 0 22,74660% 287.4 2012418541781223.4109,244  926210.11% 
11/2/20181068 917 0 23,15061% 93.3 653  1010.3110,173  909910.08% 
11/9/20181067 926 37 23,51462% 126.0 882  1052.0110,069  919210.07% 
11/16/20181042 928 0 22,79160% 217.3 1521  1145.3107,491  918510.10% 
11/23/20181048 924 0 22,93060% 104.1 729  1028.1108,109  918810.06% 
11/30/20181069 896 0 23,03061% 158.7 11114896 1054.7110,276  887710.09% 
12/7/20181046 910 0 22,89060% 156.0 1092  1066.0107,903  903610.07% 
12/14/20181046 924 0 23,87363% -18.4 -129  905.6107,903  924310.00% 
12/21/20181042 935 0 23,13361% 212.7 1489  1147.7107,491  934810.00% 
12/28/20181011 868 0 23,16261% 138.9 9723424 1006.9104,293  862310.07% 
1/4/20191000 815 0 23,25461% 171.9 1203  986.9103,158  87359.33% 
                      
18/19 MY 18 wks1038.6 912.7 6.8 23235.361.2% 128.3 898.43742.33159.51041.1107,141  9146.99.98% 
17/18 MY 19 wks1045.8 909.1 5.6 21714.357.2% 131.7 922.14053.02809.81040.8107,881  9248.79.83% 
                -740.5     
18/19 vs 17/18-0.7% 0.4% 21.3% 7.0%  -2.6% -2.6%-7.7%12.4%0.0%-0.7%  -1.1%1.5% 
            estimatedReported      
 996 795 Last year22031.0yr ago             

 

Weekly production number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yop_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Blenders Input.. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yir_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Imports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_IM0_NUS-Z00_MBBLD&f=W

Weekly Stocks number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W

Weekly US Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGFUPUS2&f=W

Monthly US Exports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPOOXE_EEX_NUS-Z00_MBBL&f=M

 

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