Seasonally all things energy slows down over the holidays with 2018/19 no different,
Ethanol production and blended both paused this past week but were Higher than a year ago's numbers. Margins are very tight and speculation is that some plants are slowing down until market conditions improve.
Production at 1,000 k bbls per day was down again during the holidays but up vs Last year's 996 k bbls per day. The Crop year to date grind is down 0.7%
Domestic Blended is the same story.. 815 k bbls per day vs 795 last year while YoY is up very slightly at 0.4%
Ethanol stocks are up 1.2 million bbls or 7%
Implied Exports were decently good also at 1.2 million bbls. This number has been tracking lower than last year's YoY though down 2.6% even though November's implied number of 4.896 million would be pretty stout. Last year we ramped up to pretty decent numbers through February and March so it's possible that would be in the works again.
Total disappearance is flat with a year ago. We NEED E-15 approval NOW!!
While gasoline supplied is down slightly at 1.1% lower.. the ethanol blend rate is up slightly at an average of 9.98% per this data set up 1.5%
Ho Hum if you will and not much to be gleaned from the holiday slowdowns... The industry is under pressure though from Pruitt's waivers and rumors of shutdown's.. Some plants are not contracting out very far.. in case they choose to shut in.. but then come in to cover nearby needs.. So it's making planning difficult. It think this is why you are seeing "bumpy air" in bids. The summer driving season is coming.. and production should be ramping up for that in a couple of months.
The Inverse between Ethanol and Crude Oil prices appears to be back.. Crude was higher.. Ethanol lower.. Probably on the assumption that higher gasoline prices will slow ethanol demand. Hence higher blends are needed to bypass more of this effect.. Consumers need access to higher blends of ethanol at the pump.