(I snipped this paragraph from the webpage above.)
"It is always very difficult to estimate soybean yield losses before the combines enter the field. In Brazil, the most optimistic estimates have the 2018/19 Brazilian soybean crop down 5% from last year, which would be down about 6 million tons to approximately 114 million tons. The most pessimistic estimates have the 2018/19 Brazilian soybean crop down 20% from last year, which would be down about 24 million tons to approximately 96 million tons! At this point, it is impossible to say where the total soybean production will end up, but we can say that the estimates of the Brazilian crop are heading lower."
Edit: Mine are 95% sold from 2018, and with the Donnie Dollars and yields no reason to complain. But this helps me to understand why price is where it is with a 900 Million carryout.