I'm gonna re-state this from below.. cause it's topical.. and digging into the numbers..




Production: 16/17 17/18 18/19 proj

Argentina    55.0   37.8   55..50
Brazil   114.6 120.3  122.0  ?? 96 To 130
US 116.92 120.04  125.18

Carry out

Argentina 35.46 34.52 41.3   Note Brazil and Arg are Ending Stocks mid year
Brazil 26.81 25.15 21.35   Should look at them on Dec 31st..  for example.
US  8.21  11.92 26.0

So Brazil at 114.6.. 120.3 to forecast of 122 with as high as.. ?? 128'ish to 130.. NOW with Informa at like 117..?? and some at 112.. with Cordonier.. 

"It is always very difficult to estimate soybean yield losses before the combines enter the field. In Brazil, the most optimistic estimates have the 2018/19 Brazilian soybean crop down 5% from last year, which would be down about 6 million tons to approximately 114 million tons. The most pessimistic estimates have the 2018/19 Brazilian soybean crop down 20% from last year, which would be down about 24 million tons to approximately 96 million tons! At this point, it is impossible to say where the total soybean production will end up, but we can say that the estimates of the Brazilian crop are heading lower."

( http://soybeanandcorn.com/news/Jan8_19-Brazilian-Soybean-Farmers-Report-Disappointing-Early-Yields )

From that.. optimistic -6, pessimistic -24 = -30/2 = -15 or 105 mmt's.. Essentially Brazil has lost what the US has gained in Carryout stocks..  14 to 15 mmt's... ?!?  And it turns to Argentina.. are they going to slide next?  (too much rain?)

so are we back to square 1?

and did Trumps Negotiation leverage just ZOOM?!?

If Brazilian bean yields are 5 bushels lower then projected.. then they lose what the US has gained in carry out..

Are they 47 bu beans.. 55?  or 40..??  Cause it matters...

Over the past few years, the average soybean yields in western Bahia have been in the range of 53 sacks per hectare (47 bu/ac). Last year was exceptionally good with yields as high as 63 sacks per hectare (56 bu/ac). Farmers in the region are worried that if they do not receive good rains within 10 days, their yields could end up at 40 sacks per hectare (35 bu/ac) or lower.