Posted 12/7/2018 17:12 (#7155951 - in reply to #7155543) Subject: RE: What's the future of dairy looking like?
SE Manitoba
BronsonA2150 - 12/7/2018 13:27
dabeegmon - 12/7/2018 13:08
steincowboy - 12/7/2018 11:54
Either really big and contract with wall mart, or really small and sell direct. Just like everything else in farming.
The grain guys think they are independent but haven't thought of what they would do if the seed companies started squeezing.
What do you mean by seed companies start squeezing?
Look at what seed corn prices have done in the last 5 or so years.
Look at what your soybean prices have done in the last 5 or so years.
Example - - - - I can remember when when canola was called rapeseed (different product but just as a time frame).
There was one year in the mid late 70s where rapeseed sold for over $12 per bu. Knew one guy - - - on 3 quarters of rapeseed he bought the biggest at that time NH Combine, 2nd largest Case 2wd tractor, built a 32 x 40 (maybe it was a bit bigger) shop,
and also bought a 3 ton (single axle truck) with box and hoist - - - - and paid cash for the works.
Try doing that today.
Then seed rapeseed was selling for around a $/# (maybe a little less but its a while ago and I could be out a bit) so it was costing about $6-8 /acre for seed.
That same amount of seed, for one acre, now costs you around $30 for the right to seed it (numbers I've heard - - - I don't run grain anymore) and then its about $35 to 40 for the seed per acre.
You bet it is possible to make great money on canola but look at those costs (and that's every year - - - back then you saved some good stuff and got it cleaned and away you went - - - - wouldn't dare do that today!!!)
My guess is that corn isn't too far off - - - what I'm understanding is that seed costs are from a low of $50 to in the $90 range.
Natural gas is cheap - - - is your fertilizer?
Your sprays - - - - have then come down in the last 5 to 7 years?
I'm looking at things like alfalfa seed.
Grower gets maybe $0.85/# - - - - go buy the stuff - - - - can you get a decent variety for $4.00?
How many new honestly great alfalfa varieties have you seen?
How many acres are there where the cropping has been reduced because of weeds that can no longer be managed using chemicals?
And the grain guys think that they're not getting squeezed?
What's the future of dairy looking like?
