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Could we blow through our soybean supply by replacing petroleum with soy oil?
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JonSCKs
Posted 12/6/2018 15:09 (#7153390 - in reply to #7153365)
Subject: Ethanol update.


Ethanol production for the Sept 1st year to date.. (13 weeks for 2018.. 14 for 2017) is now FLAT with the Inclusion of LAST YEAR's RECORD 1,108 k bbls of ethanol produced the week of 12/1/17.   For last week the 1,069 k bbls of ethanol produced was the high water mark so far for 2018/19.

Domestic Blended was down on the Thanksgiving holiday as usual..  though we are running 0.4% higher for the year.  Ethanol Stocks climbed modestly given that IMPLIED assumedly export disappearance is starting to ramp up (Chinese buying anyone?) seasonally.. thus total disappearance is up 1.3% roughly on the Implied exports being up 6.4%

Gasoline Supplied is DOWN 1.1% probably due to higher Crude Oil Prices.. aka Higher Gasoline prices slowing demand.. However the ethanol BLEND rate is actually up 1.4%..  So...

For what we've been through..  we're holding in there fairly respectably.. but the ethanol producers are not making much.. IF ANY..??  Margins.

IMAGINE what we COULD do if we actually had some support...  smh.

The Trump administration has still not RE ALLOCATED the ILLEGALLY WAIVED Gallons due to the Small Refinery HARDSHIPS granted to MULTI BILLION PROFITABLE OIL COMPANIES.. which is just plain WRONG!!

          Computed          
 Weekly Production      number to balanceComputedActualTotal Weekly bu  Weekly US  
Week Blenders InputImportsStocksCapacityResidual and exportsExportsExportsEthanolGrindMonthlyYearSupplied Finished 
 Ethanol k bbls/dayk bbls /dayk bbls /day k bbls k bbls k bbls /dayk bblsMonthlyEIAdemand  myn buMotor Gasoline 
        37,936       2.85conversion Ethanol as % of
                      
9/7/20181020 918 0 22,89460% 74.7 523  992.7105,221  96499.51% 
9/14/20181051 928 0 22,74660% 144.1 1009  1072.1108,419  95349.73% 
9/21/20181036 901 0 22,62960% 151.7 1062  1052.7106,872  898710.03% 
9/28/20181015 917 0 23,44562% -18.6 -13024642141898.4104,705  910210.07% 
10/5/20181040 913 71 24,02163% 115.7 810  1028.7107,284  907810.06% 
10/12/20181011 933 0 24,13064% 62.4 437  995.4104,293  918210.16% 
10/19/20181024 940 15 23,89763% 132.3 926  1072.3105,634  932410.08% 
10/26/20181059 936 0 22,74660% 287.4 20124185 1223.4109,244  926210.11% 
11/2/20181068 917 0 23,15061% 93.3 653  1010.3110,173  909910.08% 
11/9/20181067 926 37 23,51462% 126.0 882  1052.0110,069  919210.07% 
11/16/20181042 928 0 22,79160% 217.3 1521  1145.3107,491  918510.10% 
11/23/20181048 924 0 22,93060% 104.1 729  1028.1108,109  918810.06% 
11/30/20181069 896 0 23,03061% 158.7 11114896 1054.7110,276  887710.09% 
                      
18/19 MY 13 wks1042.3 921.3 9.5 23224.861.2% 126.9 888.13848.32141.01047.6107,522  9231.810.01% 
17/18 MY 14 wks1041.9 917.6 7.6 21464.956.6% 119.3 834.93458.32063.01034.1107,476  9335.79.86% 
                46.5     
18/19 vs 17/180.0% 0.4%   22544.0yr ago 6.4% 6.4%11.3%3.8%1.3%0.0%  -1.1%1.4% 
            estimatedReported      
 1108 885 Last year              

 

Weekly production number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yop_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Blenders Input.. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yir_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Imports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_IM0_NUS-Z00_MBBLD&f=W

Weekly Stocks number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W

Weekly US Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGFUPUS2&f=W

Monthly US Exports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPOOXE_EEX_NUS-Z00_MBBL&f=M

 

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