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Are sales annoucements coming?
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Conan the Farmer
Posted 12/4/2018 13:15 (#7148266 - in reply to #7148194)
Subject: RE: An export merchant anticipating a sale....



South Central Iowa
That borders on speculation though... I've wondered before why we have enough long positions when specs go short, why we don't dip further to find buyers.... The end users who add value to the raw product would hedge by going long without any other position. But it seems awfully speculative of a merchant to do the same, just like they wouldn't go short without buying the physical first. They would go long of they sold a future delivery, like a sale to China in March, but didn't have the inventory on hand.

Maybe the Chinese Crusher went long on the board to cover a price rise without buying physical. That would be the case if they are they buyer that Indy mentions. If they didn't buy the physical though and just covered risk on the board, we won't see any announcements. Maybe a set physical on the low price and work the basis down on a futures rally?.... Idk

Edited by Conan the Farmer 12/4/2018 13:17
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