| Just saying - 11/30/2018 19:10
I don’t think I’d discourage the fellow from locking in a price on part of his 19 production? If we end up with a billion or more bu. carryover, these current prices might be looking pretty good come next fall. And while I enjoy reading JP’s posts and learn from them. He isn’t all knowing and right 100% of the time. I just contracted some Jan 20 delivery beans today for well over $9.00. I’ll add another $1+ with a non gmo premium. I can make money at that price. I just have a sneaking suspicion after reading Trumps recent tweet about not really wanting to settle the trade war that come Sunday night/Monday morning we’re gonna see a lot of red on the screen. And if I’m wrong, I’ll sell more of both old and new crop. Blind bullishness has cost me too much in recent years.
Yes sir. You got that right. I am not 100% and not all knowing. I do my best to read what price is saying and interpret it the best way I can. Price knows, it's us that is the problem.
To the OP...if I was you and felt uncomfortable, I would only consider puts or futures back with calls. There is alot of time value built into them and the price tag might be tough to stomach. But, they leave your top side open. I will say that again,..they leave your top side open. There is absolutely no way you would get me to lock the topside in the bean market under the current market structure for 19 crop. As tough as stomaching a 50 cent put or call might be, delivering your beans at a huge discount to what you could if you did nothing, might be tougher depending on your circumstances.
Good luck and take care
Edited by J P 12/1/2018 08:25
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Strategy for 2019 Seed Beans?
